The truth on pubs is too complex for the Mail

The Daily Mail saw another opportunity to bang its anti-alcohol drum last week. It had spotted that both Majestic Wines and London-based Fuller's were performing well. And it could see an angle along the lines of 'Booze Britain carries on drinking despite economic austerity'.

A Daily Mail feature writer, writing a piece for the newspaper about the "positive performance of alcohol sales in spite of an overall retail downturn", contacted me.

The journalist had three questions: would you agree that the drinks industry is performing well at the moment? Why do you think certain alcohol businesses are doing so well despite the downturn? Why do you think people are still buying alcoholic drinks during a time of austerity?

The Daily Mail doesn't like opinions that fail to chime with its world view — that the UK is awash with alcohol as people continue to indulge in 24-hour drinking, despite the UK's worst post-war recession.

I was happy, of course, to take time to explain what is going on in the pub sector. (On this occasion, I presume the Daily Mail could not find enough people to support its thesis because nothing was published.)

An awful lot has changed for the sector in the past two decades. Beer sales have

declined year after year. But food sales in pubs have been in growth, save for 18 months during the recession.

Four of the five largest eating and drinking-out operators in the UK are managed pub companies — Mitchells & Butlers, JD Wetherspoon, Spirit and Greene King — where food sales drive at least 65% of total sales.

Eating outside the home is twice as expensive as eating at home. Drinking outside the home is four times as expensive as drinking at home. So, relatively speaking, eating out is more affordable than drinking out of the home.

As a result, there's a long-term trend towards drinking more at home, but pubs that offer great value meals are having a reasonable recession. And enjoying a drink with your pub and restaurant meal is an affordable luxury.

So, overall, the impact of the recession on eating and drinking out has been very different during this recession compared to the last one. Drinking out was down a huge 17.1% between 2007 and 2009 compared to 8.8% between 1990-92. But in the depths of this recession eating out was down 4.5% compared to 11.2% between 1990-92 (and is now back in growth).

In the most recent year, sales of wines and spirits in both the on and off-trades were flat or falling by volume, but increasing by value, due to record tax increases, according to the latest overview from the Wine & Spirit Trade Association (WSTA).

Consumers are definitely feeling the pinch as household incomes are squeezed. But, ironically, there's been a migration in the off-trade to slightly more expensive products. Consumers have become more value-conscious and discerning, but still like to treat themselves.

It's an inconvenient and excessively complex message for the Daily Mail.