Freeing up footy rights could be an own goal

Forty odd years ago I wished for a bike and asked God if I could have one for Christmas. I realised it doesn't work like that, so I stole one and asked for forgiveness! So be careful what you wish for, as it could cost more than you expected.

If the press stories are to be believed the advocate general's (AG's) view on the foreign satellite case will ban territorial agreements and pave the way for pan-European licences for broadcasting of sporting rights — and that could be a very bad thing for you to wish for.

Picture the scenario: Sky will buy the rights for the Premier League in the UK and no-one else will have it. The French may buy the Heineken Cup, the Italians the Champions League and so on. So you'll still need a Sky commercial package if you want to show the Premier League, and a French commercial package if you want the Heineken Cup etc etc.

Sky prices may go down as it will have a monopoly and be able to scoop up pubs that previously used foreign. But you will need to buy four or five other systems to enjoy coverage previously supplied by Sky. These will be commercial packages at commercial prices, not domestic cards. It is the doomsday scenario for pubs, yet it's basically what the AG is saying.

What people don't get is the differentiation between domestic and commercial, and every single foreign card currently in use in the UK is a domestic card. Just as sure as alcohol helps ugly people have sex, this activity will be banned when the law is clarified.

If the AG's view is accepted you will need to buy a commercial Italian and German package andmore cards to complement your commercial Sky deal — and, don't forget, Sky will be the only one with the Premier League.

However, the AG's view is not a judgement. It relates to two cases. The lead case encompasses the supply of domestic foreign decoder cards to commercial businesses (pubs). The second is about their use in pubs (Murphy case). The European Court of Justice is set to issue a ruling in the next six months, but this will not be the end, as the High Court case will then need to resume.

Only when that case is complete will hosts know limits on the use of foreign domestic cards on commercial premises.

The key to all this is it allows for the possibility for different rules to be applied to domestic and commercial subscriptions. If you're caught using a domestic card in a commercial environment you will be hit hard.

It is far from over, but if the decision forces the abolition of territorial deals in the EU you can expect to pay for five to six separate commercial subscriptions in future.

Tony Holman was once associated with foreign satellite firm Euroview​