Caroline Nodder: A critical few weeks for the pub trade

The next few weeks are going to be really critical for our industry.

Not only are we about to hear from the horse's mouth what kind of a taxation burden we face under the new government - the emergency Budget announcement will take place on Tuesday - but we will also find out how much of a boost the World Cup has actually been for pubs and more importantly whether the hot weather is coming back and if so how trade will level out post tournament.

There has been an enormous build-up to the football - and rightly so, it is a very exciting time for the whole country not just the pub sector - but more and more out in the industry I hear licensees speculating as to what September might bring.

Most seem to see the start of autumn as the time that they will be able to take stock of their businesses and genuinely see how trade is holding up. The masking effect of the World Cup will be gone and the results of summer trade will be in, so proper analysis can be done. It has been reassuring to see most have not put all their eggs in one basket with the football and are planning on a far more long-term basis within their pubs. After any high there is always a low so this is prudent, certainly.

Much hangs really on the route the new government chooses to go down. And also on the efforts of those within the trade associations who are talking to the new ministers and MPs. The Budget is crucial. My hope is that with more talk than ever around supermarket pricing the on-trade may just get the break it deserves, either through some sort of tax break for lower alcohol products like beer, or through some adjustment to counter the hit that will come from any rise in VAT.

While our trade has been denied the attention that the short-lived Pubs Minister role might have granted it under Labour, I am not entirely sure this is a bad thing. Being top of any minister's agenda in the past has almost always led to interference and unwelcome legislation. Maybe if new licensing minister John Penrose has more pressing things to worry about we might just escape some of the negative impact he might otherwise have.

However, we do need to be heard by other departments - most importantly the Treasury - on key issues like beer duty. And in this regard it seems our plight has at least been acknowledged by some of the new incumbents of the House of Commons.

Having sent out letters to all these new MPs encouraging them to visit a pub during Proud of Pubs Week I am delighted that we have had a very positive response so far, including letters which acknowledge that pubs need MPs' support.

As ever let's hope this support is forthcoming and that the stringent cuts David Cameron has been quite openly prescribing don't include another dagger in the pub trade's heart.