Pubs and politics - a heady mix

Political intervention in the pub industry, whether direct or indirect, looks set to continue following Labour's fairly catastrophic contribution in recent years.

With George Osborne's emergency Budget looming the pub and drinks industries' trade bodies have been busy lobbying the Treasury over duty and VAT. The effects of any increases, they argue, will be immensely damaging.

While few are betting on duty going up - though weekend press reports suggested it might yet - VAT must surely rise, a move that will hit the nation's poorest hardest. This, together with increased pressure on most consumers and the variance between on and off-trade alcohol pricing, could speed up the demise of many an already-struggling pub.

Then there is the issue of the wholesale price of beer. It might be a fact of human nature that people who complain speak louder than those with something positive to say, but it seems most licensees who ring me these days say times are so tough they barely make ends meet and that the cost of their tied beer is largely to blame.

Some will argue such people are in the wrong business, yet even those doing well point the finger at the beer tie as a negative factor.

Which leads to the next area for political activity. In almost exactly a year's time the tenanted and leased pub industry will have to have come up with clear and unassailable evidence that it has relaxed the tie.

The LibDemCon coalition government has already confirmed it will stick to the demand of former pubs minister John Healey, namely that companies have until June next year to show they have moved enough to fend off government intervention.

A lot of work will have to be done in the next 12 months. Otherwise relations between government and certain parts of the industry will only go one way…