That ol' rumour mill, it keeps on a-grindin'...

Rumours surrounding the impending demise of the country's large pub operators are two-a-penny these days.

Barely a day goes by that one doesn't hear that so-and-so is close to the brink. The problem is making such speculation stand up. Believe me, it's harder than you think.

Pondering what would happen if one of the UK's big players went belly up any time soon I spoke to a well-regarded City analyst last week whom I got to explain various scenarios that could take place. I'll be upfront with you, after about 10 minutes my head began to spin.

Never mind whether you believe they will go bust imminently - and there are those who fervently believe The End Is Nigh™ for certain entities - there are structures in place at such companies that would make an unwinding extremely complicated. This isn't to say it couldn't happen. Just that it could end up being an unholy mess.

Now, there are savvier people than me out there who will come up with 'back of the envelope' calculations as to how a large pubco can end up in the hands of administrators.

But CSE level economics aside even I can see how unwinding securitisations and asserting dominance in the creditor pecking order would prove to be a headache of Biblical proportions for even the smartest administrator, not that they wouldn't relish the task - and the fees.

Collapsing revenue in a company's pubs, leading to the earnings/interest cover ratio falling to unacceptable levels, could precipitate the sort of ring-round between bondholders that renders your average chief executive an insomniac. But for some the prospect of hanging on might be the more viable option.

Meanwhile, the 'demise' rumours will continue. And it's worth bearing in mind that even the boy who cried "wolf!" eventually saw a wolf.