2010: year ahead in the pub trade

Will 2010 be the turning point for our battered industry? Will there be a change in the fortunes of the sector or is the outlook just as gloomy? We asked the industry's movers and shakers to predict what this year will hold

Isaac Sheps, CEO, Carlsberg UK​

Overall I am optimistic about 2010. Although the tough economic times that we have all been experiencing will not disappear overnight, I think those businesses (be they brewers or pubs) that get their offer right will do well.

As a business Carlsberg UK will continue to be completely customer focused and do its best to meet the needs and expectations of its customers and consumers. We strongly believe that if retailers and suppliers enter into positive working relationships, and are open and progressive, then it is a win-win situation.

Carlsberg UK has had some fantastic successes, and we expect this to continue throughout 2010. The World Cup is going to be a massive opportunity for licensees - but only if they grab it with both hands. The benefits are not just going to come to them.

We will be reinforcing things by introducing innovations to our We Deliver More programme throughout 2010. For example, we are running a series of live events, called We Deliver More - Live Sport from January to May, giving licensees advice on how to make the most of the World Cup.

My main prediction and hope? England to win the World Cup!

Stuart MacFarlane, president, InBev UK​

Looking forward over the next 12 months, I would say that increases in Government intervention, acceleration of brand premiumisation and a renewed focus on innovation would be the three major trends shaping the industry.

We're all aware of the impact that the heavy and ever-increasing tax burden has already had - increases in duty and now the VAT increase will only compound the challenges we've faced in 2009.

Issues such as the beer tie, minimum pricing, and others are likely to be subject to Government intervention - rather than expanding its remit, the Government ought to focus instead on enforcing the raft of laws already on the books.

I also believe we'll see an acceleration of brand premiumisation. Both Beck's Vier and Stella Artois 4% have been very successful as innovations catering to the premiumisation trend, and in 2010 I expect we'll see even more of this with premium 4% lager, cask ales, bottled cider, wine and white spirits.

Finally, as we begin to see "green shoots" in the economy, I believe we'll find brand owners and retailers returning to a focus on innovation, de-frosting the plans that were put on ice during the recession.

Tim Martin, chairman, JD Wetherspoon​

My hope is that the far more sensible policies being adopted by trade bodies such as the British Beer & Pub Association and the trade media — recognising that the main threat comes from red tape and tax, rather than supermarkets — will continue.

I also hope that we all continue to emphasise the benefits of pubs over supermarkets, including the benefits of supervised drinking, rather than attacking supermarkets, which is counter-productive.

I hope that rents and beer prices are reduced, or at least remain as near static as possible, for most tenants and freetraders, allowing pubs the chance to recover from the excesses of the recent past.

I particularly hope that Hugh Osmond and Guy Hands, responsible for loading pubs with unsustainable debt and then quitting the scene, stay out of our industry.

Alistair Darby, managing director, Marston's Pub Company​

I am looking forward to 2010. Things are going to get better, not least because the clouds of uncertainty that have hung over us are going to start to blow away.

By the summer, at the latest, we will know the nature of the next Government and what it has in store for us. The latter may not be that palatable, but we'll at last know what we have got to deal with.

Consumers will start to emerge from their bunkers, having spent the past year saving like never before. The economy will begin to pick up and the fear of losing a job will begin to recede.

This has got to be good news for spending in pubs.

There's a World Cup to make the most of and we must, surely, be due some kind of decent summer! Life for tenants and lessees will get better as we implement revised codes of conduct, which are designed to address so many of the issues that have bedevilled relationships over the past year.

Finally, and most importantly, anybody who has kept running a great pub will get his or her reward from consumers who will want to come out to spend their money on quality service, atmosphere, food and drink. Cheers!

Willie Crawshay, managing director, Scottish & Newcastle Pub Enterprises​

I'm quite gloomy about the prospect of 2010, actually. I think that although there are plenty of reports in the press about how we are about to come out of the recession, whatever increase there is in confidence will be short lived.

There will be a period of uncertainty around the election and beyond that whatever the outcome, and the post-election period will be one of belt tightening as the Government seeks to address budget deficits.

To add to this gloomy consumer outlook what is also important to our industry is commercial property value and I don't see that recovering until 2011 at the earliest.

For those licensees who want to survive all this, understanding your market, offering something unique compared to your competitors and investing in the business will all be key.

Simon Emeny, managing director, Fuller's Inns​

Last year was one in which many people rediscovered the pub, whether they were switching from restaurants or returning following the smoking ban, and in 2010 I think that trend will continue.

I expect more people to realise that, far from being at the root of most of the UK's ills, the pub is the home of responsible drinking and a place where they can enjoy themselves with friends and family in comfortable surroundings.

The pub offers its customers a unique experience that you can't get anywhere else, and key to that experience in 2010 will be cask ale. But it's not just cask ale that is bringing people back to the pub.

I have noticed a real trend for the softer factors of a pub's appeal, such as real fires, reclaimed furniture and real food, served by nice, friendly people.

The pub has so much competition, but by focusing on the things that make it unique, and offering an experience that customers cannot get elsewhere, I'm certain that 2010 can be a strong year for the British pub's place in the nation's consciousness.

Ian Payne, chairman, Town & City Pubs and Bay Restaurants​

Higher direct and indirect taxation coupled with a rise in unemployment will almost certainly form the backdrop to the year. This means that the importance of value will be more critical than ever in both the pub and restaurant sectors.

Town & City Pub Company will continue to offer outstanding price points on food and drink, while Bay Restaurant Group will grow by combining quality food with excellent service, supported by aggressive promotions.

The importance of the internet as a marketing tool will continue to grow through the year. Bay already talks to 800,000 customers via the three individual brand websites, and this will increase to more than one million in the year. The effective use of social networking sites will offer huge opportunities.

Sport will take an even higher profile in Town & City as we maximise the opportunity afforded by the World Cup in June and July. When England win the tournament the feel-good factor will boost trade for weeks.

It would be so helpful to move the industry PR stance away from "50 sites closing per week" onto a positive message about the key part that the pub plays in British recreational culture. A unified approach to this message would be a step change that should benefit us all.

Martin Caffrey, operations director, Federation of Licensed Victuallers Associations​

What does the future ho