Chris Maclean: The problem is not too many pubs, but too few innkeepers

On the face of it a surplus of pubs seems the obvious response. In these economic times (and yes, Pete, the smoking ban) there is less and less money at peoples' disposal and it is being competed for by swathes of alternative entertainments.

Running any business nowadays is very difficult. A successful, viable pub is a rarity. With so many competing for the diminishing numbers in the market it does suggest that too many pubs is the obvious problem.

But the debate yesterday stemmed from an observation about the calibre of some of the people who are starting out. It would seem that some of the newer influx of licensees have a very poor grasp of what being a licensee entails. They seem to know little about the products, the law or anything about the job. I am continually amazed about how many trainees I encounter who have never worked behind a bar or who have never pulled a pint.

Am I deluding myself or was there a halcyon time when a pub landlord made a lot of money? I seem to remember (and I am in my 50's) that the typical landlord of the 70's drove a reasonably new, large Jaguar and his wife was smothered in jewelery. Then, according to one old BDM, they introduced VAT. That finished the golden era. Well it seems like that to me. With comprehensive accounts the tax collectors, and the breweries, got a clearer picture of how well the pub sector was doing. Now the screws could be tightened. Business got more difficult. Licensees had to run so much faster to stay in the same place. The churn rate of changing licensees increased.

Two things seem to result from this. Firstly the waiting list of aspiring tenants - those who had prepared themselves (and they really had) for a life and career as innkeepers - had now diminished. They'd been used up - especially during the eighties when redundancy packages seduced people into somehow believing they would be good business people and, particularly licensees. Consequently where "selection" of candidates used to comprised of a "long list" and a "short list" we now seem to have reached a point whereby if anyone showsa little interest and has the capital they are at risk of being offered the pub.

Secondly the level of rent was now being determined, not on the value of the property, but on a notional idea of how much money a business could take if an hypothetically exceptional licensee were at the helm.

In other words, unless an exceptional licensee ran their pub exceptionally well there were going to be problems. There was no longer any slack in the system.

But the legacy of all of this is that the residual pool of new licensees has all but dried up. Few young people would consider a career in an industry which worked such anti-social hours, for such little money and respect. We are not producing innkeepers of the future. We are not equiping people with the skills necessary to endure the hardships and pitfalls. Few of those who are coming into the trade at this moment in time have what it takes to survive; and they shall tragically fail. We cannot expect the number of pubs to stop declining until we have sufficient innkeepers with experience and flair available to run them.

It's no too many pubs. It's too few innkeepers.