Forget 2009, 2010 will be the year to watch out for
News of Kraft's recent multi-million-pound bid for UK chocolate behemoth Cadbury and talk of a possible merger between telecommunications giants T-Mobile and Orange gave cause for some optimism - in some quarters at least - that the economic environment might be on the turn.
We've not had much in the way of corporate activity for a while, so it's inevitable that when such tie-ups are mooted people get excited. Add in a survey of UK recruitment agencies suggesting the job market might be at its most buoyant for more than 17 months and the glass-half-full lot were in full flow.
For now such optimism is rare in the pub and brewing sectors. Every trading statement I've read in recent weeks has sounded at least cautious.
If there is any recovery it isn't in plain sight, rather it is extremely fragile. Greene King said last week it remained cautious both on the economic outlook and for the industry's own prospects. Whitbread boss Alan Parker took an even dimmer view, noting his company had yet to see any substantive signs of recovery.
Such reticence is understandable. After all, corporate types don't want to call things too early.
Next year, then, rather than 2009, will perhaps prove to be the most challenging in recent times, as the lagged effect of unemployment kicks in, consumers who were used to low mortgage interest rates find them creeping up again and a ton of corporate debt that still needs to be refinanced.
In short, there are plenty of rivers to cross before we see the sun shining again.
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Following the British Medical Association's demand that alcohol advertising be banned in order to discourage unhealthy lifestyles, I'm minded to recall an old joke: what's the definition of an alcoholic? Someone who drinks more than their GP.
