Tough times are with us for a while

There is a growing sense that far from 2009 proving to be the nadir for the pub sector, it will be next year when the brown stuff really hits the fan.

In the closing months of 2008 many operators believed this year would see some of the worst trading conditions for a generation or more. But thus far anecdotal evidence suggests this is not the case.

Despite the parlous state of the economy many operators have reported 'reasonable' numbers. Marvellous. But what of 2010? VAT will have returned to 17.5 per cent, and while the temporary cut did not provide the stimulus to the economy the Chancellor had promised, the return to the higher rate will only hit hard-pressed consumers in their pockets.

Then there'll be the inevitable rise in taxes, whoever governs the country after a General Election to be held by next summer. Interest rates will surely head upwards, either by the end of this year or early into next. And energy and raw material costs are already edging back up, as forward contracts expire. What joy.

It seems those hatches will be battened down for a while longer.

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Some family brewers are worried about the way the industry is presenting itself to government following the BEC report. The talk in certain smoke-free rooms is of not only being firm with government to see off any potential meddling in the industry, but of how not to go about things with ministers.

The fear is that if certain operators come across as too abrasive the whole sector will be tarred with the same legislative brush. Unlike the pubcos - a modern phenomenon - some family brewers have been around for hundreds of years.

And they want to stick around in their existing form, tie more or less intact, for years to come…