Pub closures to peak at 46 per week

Pub closures will peak at around the 46-a-week mark in the coming year, pub sector research company CGA chief executive Jon Collins has forecast.

But CGA predictions indicate that there will still be around 56,000 pubs in the UK in five years' time, with a strong wet-led element of 28,897 pubs and food-led pubs growing in number by 9.3% to 12,506 pubs.

Overall, the CGA forecast suggests the UK will lose around 6,000 pubs in the next half decade. Collins said: "We expect both 2009 and 2010 to be quite savage. But in 2011, 2012 and 2013 we think the UK will return to more historic levels of decline.

"We are still going to have a very strong, viable on-trade in five years' time. People are tending to focus on the decline. But the community boozer is not in terminal decline — there are still going to be 29,000 wet-led pubs in the UK. What's going on is a realignment."

Collins said he thought some brand owners had started to neglect the on-trade despite the excellent margin opportunities it

provides, especially in the free-trade. The CGA figures show there are currently a total of 139,543 on-trade premises in the UK, with 62,742 of these pubs.

Of these, 34,414 are currently wet-led pubs (down 12.2% since 2005), 11,442 are food-led pubs (up 11.2% since 2005) and 16,886 are circuit venues (up 1.3% since 2005).

CGA believes that in 2013 there will be 28,897 wet-led pubs (down 16%), 12,506 food-led pubs (up 9.3%) and 15,057 circuit venues (down 10.8%).

Restaurant numbers, according to CGA, are set to climb by 7% to 24,250 by 2013, some of them pub conversions.