Pete Robinson: Minimum pricing - loading supermarket prices won't bring people back into pubs

One year earlier the Publican's own Hamish Champ was proudly reporting UK pub turnover about to hit a five-year peak, with continued growth predicted until at least 2011.

Regent Inns, currently hovering on the brink of administration, announced a 21% leap in profits to June 2007 and eager buyers were snapping up Punch Taverns shares at £13.80. The same shares now trade at just 35p.

Without doubt pubs were thriving right up until July 2007. Let's make no mistake about that. Some were more profitable than others but only a handful could have been described as unviable. The Trade as a whole was in great shape and doing very nicely thank you.

That was despite cheap supermarket booze, despite the tie, despite pubco rents, despite business rates and the entire gamut of other rising expenses.

Yes, there was the economic downturn. However that didn't start to bite until well into 2008, arguably since late autumn. Recent history clearly demonstrates that pubs bear recessions well, the financial gloom driving drinkers into pubs to drown their sorrows on their redundancy money. It's textbook economics that the pub/leisure sector along with domestic tourism has been a relatively safe harbour during recession - until now.

So what else happened in July 2007 to impel such a healthy, busy pub trade to fall off a cliff?

Yep, you guessed it. We allowed this all-controlling Nu-Labour government to impose an unpopular law effectively forcing us to boot out our highest spending regulars.

"Unpopular?", I hear someone say. "My customers are happier, my pub is cleaner and my receipts are unaffected." If that's you then all well and good. Your pub enjoys a prime location, or relies on non-pub business - a night club, restaurant or hotel.

However your success is built partly on the death of formerly viable pubs in your area, and who knows? Your time may come.

But the smoking ban legislation remains very unpopular indeed amongst those who count most, the customers. Not just the smokers either. Although they were the first to express their anger by voting with their feet there have been many non-smoking pub customers who followed them.

It's the law of unintended consequences. Smokers have non-smoking friends, many of whom complained of sitting alone when the smokers went out to light up. They also missed their smoking friends who had given up the pub, eventually joining them at the Tesco-sponsered parties that have flourished since the ban.

The irony is that although the ban was allegedly to improve the nation's health we now have groups of people regularly gathering in small, unventilated rooms to chain-smoke whilst knocking back vats of cheap alcohol in a completely unsupervised environment.

Cheap, fun and entirely unrestricted. It's the modern-day 'speakeasy' only completely legal, save perhaps for the odd joint. A sterile, near-empty pub seems quite depressing by comparison so it's little wonder that non-smokers are keen for a slice of this action - usually making up at least a third of the numbers present.

The other unintended consequence is that I've witnessed many non-smokers take that 'first drag' on a cigarette just to see what all the fuss is about. This is not something I condone in any way but it's little wonder the percentage of smokers in Ireland has rocketed to 30% since their smoking ban when it was originally on target to hit 22%.

Despite this seemingly indisputable evidence the Irish ban, which has decimated their pub trade, is still being trumpeted as a 'success'. Incredible. The health lobby would never, even in their dying breath, admit to failure.

Those puritan health fascists are now pointing their sanctimonious finger at alcohol, just as some of us warned they would. You cannot pick and choose which of your rights as a publican you are willing to give up.

The smoking ban was only the beginning of the end. Now, having ripped the heart out of the pub trade they're after it's soul.

And like fools we're about to let them get away with it again.

We enthusiastically applaud minimum pricing being imposed on supermarkets, apparently blind to the fact that pubs are just one step up the feeding chain. The knock-on effect would be inevitable.

Does anyone, in all honesty, believe that loading supermarket prices would bring people back into pubs? "Okay Lads, this stuff is costing us £1 a pint now. Let's go and stand outside a pub and pay £3."

Back in 2007 I was warning about the impending rise of these drink-at-home shindigs based on my experiences in Norway, where off-sale prices are amongst the highest in Europe. A half-litre tin of supermarket beer typically costs £3.50, approx 50% of the bar price. Meanwhile a bottle of wine or spirit is only available from a handful of approved specialist outlets, the Vinmonopolet, where the cheapest plonk starts at nearly a tenner and a 70cl bottle of vodka will set you back £35!

Have these sky-high booze prices discouraged Norwegian smoking parties? Have they hell. Norwegian smokers take it all in their stride and drink like fish at any one of a complicated social network of home-based 'smoke-easies'.

If the idea does come to anything here in Britain then it won't change a thing. Except of course that pub prices will go up even higher as a consequence. Oh yes they will, just wait and see.

The government have already told us they can't differentiate on off-sale prices 'cause it's against EU rules. So what do you suppose they are hiding up their sleeve? I've warned you many times, this is a government on an anti-pub crusade. The concessions in extra tax they will extract for this ineffective stunt will make your eyes water. Trust them at your peril.

However by far the worst aspect of this sorry episode is that in supporting minimum pricing the Trade is sheepishly echoing the idea that drinking is bad for you.

Pick up any newspaper or magazine. You'll find at least one article warning of "new research", health, liver, heart, cancer, blah, blah, beating your kids, losing your job, blah, blah. It's like SHS all over again.

Nightly our TVs beam emotive, taxpayer-funded advertisements into our homes confirming the evils of the demon drink - and people believe what the TV tells them. The message we are conspiring to spread is loud and clear. Even moderate drinking causes cancer and will screw up your life, or perhaps kill you outright.

Better stay away from the stuff and those who binge on it. Stay away from pubs.

Once again the Trade busily stokes it's own funeral pyre.