Half of pubs to close? What a massive claim

As a rule, we industry commentators try to avoid "blue-on-blue" — there's enough of that going on in the 99p trading wars at the moment.

Sometimes, though, a fellow scribe provides both the ammo and the target. Last week in this column, my fellow writer Peter Linacre claimed that the "pubco model is dead". In a masterly piece of understatement, he went on to declare that "pubcos need operators more than ever". He added — helpfully — that we could lose up to 50% of pubs currently operating.

That's some claim. Even lager baron Mark Hunter of Coors only claimed that up to a quarter of the country's pubs could disappear.

I guess Peter must have some kind of magical insight (or have been on the pop) to come up with that ludicrous forecast. Mind you, this time last year Peter did have to put 34 of his 36 Massive Pub Company sites into administration — that's 95% — so he does know a thing or two about big numbers. Essentially, his argument falls into the camp of "pubcos are stuffed, so for tenants it's fill yer boots time".

There are more deals on rent, on terms, on the tie and on just about any other part of the pubco-tenant negotiation to be had right now than at any time I can remember.

He is right in that the sector has to reflect the new realities and be more flexible than ever, but Peter forgot a caveat — an important one.

When the market shakes out and the old, redundant pubs with no raison d'être have been boarded up or flogged off for turning into a tanning salon, a branch of Lidl or a nursing home, those pubs that are left will demand a much higher standard of operator.

Peter says that demand for good food, good drinks and good service will not go away.

My question to Peter Linacre is: how is he helping to encourage those superlative licensees to come into this tricky game? Is his call to licensees to take the pubcos to the cleaners on rent and everything else really a responsible attitude? Or is it simply a clarion call to future failures, further closures and deeper antagonism?

Peter Linacre quoted the Pythons. And I'll quote them back to him: "My philosophy, like colour television, is all there in black and white."

In other words, ultimately it's the quality of the operator that will really count for pubcos.

Deal or no deal!