Take a leaf out of the Pythons' book

It might not seem it, but these might be the very best of times for operators looking to seize opportunities.

As David Essex sang in 1974 "Every cloud's got a silver lining…".

I won't for a moment understate the disastrous economic position we face. But it will definitely get worse before it gets better. It's not whether we can avoid 1929 — we have already failed that test. It is now whether we avoid 1930, 1931, 1932 and 1933!

However, if you can put a positive face on things it is out of total disasters that sometimes the best opportunities can arise.

The world has turned upside down. What was strong is now weak. What was and is weak can be a platform for strength. Debt is a coffin, cash will win every contest. As Dickens opened The Tale of Two Cities: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times."

The pubco model is dead, its financing model is dead. Pubs are closing at a faster rate than ever before. It could well be the case that ultimately we lose 50% of the pubs currently operating.

This means pubcos need operators now more than they have ever needed them. The self-delusion of their model has gone. When they look to get a tenant for a pub that is closed all the old bets are off. It is now: name your rent, name the discount, name the tenure — free of tie or otherwise, name the investment the pubco has to put in.

Any existing lease will remain in place — but new leases will reflect

the new realities of 2009 and beyond. For the first time the relationship between landlords and tenants has changed.

Any landlord who bought property in the past three/four years is under water — and sinking fast. They will be the ones most prepared to be flexible and realistic with potential lessees. But ultimately the whole sector has to reflect the new realities.

Banks won't lend a penny and won't for a while — but they will be fire-selling thousands of empty pubs. Many of these will close for ever — but many won't and can be turned into good businesses again. What will make them good businesses will be operators.

What will not change is that a good pub will still be a good pub. Demand for good food, good drinks and good service will not go away.

So in amongst the gloom there will be lights that shine. And there is always the song below to help you along…

"Some things in life are bad,

They can really make you mad,

Other things just make you swear and curse,

When you're chewing on life's gristle,

Don't grumble, give a whistle,

And this'll help things turn out for the best.

And... always look on the bright side of life...."