Don't do a dodo, do a Darwin

It's 200 years since the birth of Darwin, and 150 years since the publication of his book On the Origin of Species.

Those revolutionary ideas have long been accepted by scientists and most rational people as the key to understanding human evolution. But the reason for this anniversary nod to one of our greatest men is, of course, that his basic theory is being played out in the pub trade right now.

This year will be all about the survival of the fittest — and the process will be like nature itself, red in tooth and claw. The credit crunch, rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence will see to that. Predictions of pub closures in the coming 12 months vary from commentator to commentator — but the starkest yet comes from Coors boss Mark Hunter this week, who suggests 25% — 15,000 pubs — could go in the next five to 10 years.

How will you make sure your pub is fit enough to survive this evolutionary cull? Darwin gives a big clue. He wrote: "As many more individuals of each species are born than can possibly survive; and as, consequently, there is a frequently recurring struggle for existence, it follows that any being, if it vary however slightly in any manner profitable to itself, it will have a better chance of surviving."

So differentiating yourself and standing out from other pubs is the key to survival. Doing the same old thing and expecting to make money is the path to extinction.

Yet too many pubs are failing to do all they can to survive. Too many licensees have their heads in the sand. Too many don't even know the GP they're making, or should be making, on every item they sell.

It pains the Morning Advertiser to say something this brutal — but too many licensees are not up to the game. This is bad for the trade, and a disaster for the individuals themselves who are often trapped in a nightmare from which they cannot escape.

But for those with the abilities to tackle the considerable challenges of running a successful pub, and given sympathetic backing from an enlightened pubco, there are big opportunities to make themselves stand out from their competitors and win their battle for the leisure pound.

Chief of these is better quality service. Again, it's painful for a totally supportive trade paper to point this out — but too often, a visit to the pub is spoiled by poor service and low standards. As members

of the trade, aren't we often embarrassed when we drink with friends in some of

our pubs?

In these difficult times, as Paul Wells and Kevin Georgel point out (p6-7), customers will become even choosier about where they spend their money. Why should they spend in a pub that doesn't welcome them with a smile and look after them?

Of course 2009 will be tough. But only poor standards will make it fatally tough.