We will survive - in spite of the smoking ban

There's stormy weather ahead for many in the pub game, but community pubs are having an especially tough time of it. Between them, the credit crunch and the smoking ban are taking a highly publicised toll on this particular part of the licensed sector.

But while the industry's more vexing issues are familiar to all but a Martian with his eyes shut, not everyone is downbeat.

Having trimmed its sails in recent months, the team behind Tadcaster Pub Company believe the group is set fair to ride out the next five years. That's certainly the view of the man at the helm, managing director James Crawfurd-Porter.

Back in March the Yorkshire-based group founded by chairman Jim Walsh offloaded 20 pubs and 10 hotels to Scottish & Newcastle Pub Enterprises. The deal nearly halved Tadcaster's size - to 36 properties, including four hotels. And the leaner estate, Crawfurd-Porter believes, will see them through.

"We wanted to get a sustainable business for the next five years, and we've now got the pubs we can do that with," he says. "And the deal cleared a bit of a debt, too.

"The high-barrelage boozers we run are in a specialist market these days. The smoking ban has made that market very difficult and we have brought down our projections because of it, but a lot of our heartland is holding up."

Crawfurd-Porter says he is confident the company's estate will survive "if we support and invest in our licensees". He adds: "There's a demand for our sort of pubs."

Tadcaster could even be adding to its estate next year. It has a £2m war chest which, says Crawfurd-Porter, will buy it "four to six pubs up here" when prices come down.

"We're not obsessed with the quality end. We're happy to buy mid-range, but not pubco cast-offs either, unless they have a particular barrelage," he says. "Or if a group of 15 comes up and hits us in the face we might do the deal."

One area where Crawfurd-Porter is not so equivocal is the smoking ban. He was one of the more vehement opponents of the ban on smoking long before it was introduced in England last year.

Now he's blaming it for plummeting beer sales across the pub trade - in particular in those "high-barrelage boozers".

"It's not the economy," he says, emphatically. "We've been through recessions in the past and they have even been known to do community pubs good. There's almost been a conspiracy of silence about it in the industry, but it's the smoking ban that is the reason for a lot of the decline, especially in community pubs, where about 50 per cent are smokers."

Such customers are spending less time in the pub and it changes the whole atmosphere, he argues.

"The smoking ban has accelerated a decline and the market is out of balance. Demand falling and supply is outstripping demand.

"The market has got to find its level again and I reckon it will get back to equilibrium when we have 50,000 pubs left out of the 60,000.

"It's a large industry. We're not seeing the death of the British pub, but there will be a huge shake-out and a lot of pubs need to close yet.

"It's bad for the pub industry, but there are still lots of opportunities. We'll batten down the hatches a bit and see how we come out the other side.

Crawfurd-Porter says Tadcaster will "do what we need to do in terms of cutting costs".

"Most of all we'll work closely with our tenants and try to retain the good people and make sure they are supported so they can run a good pub. There is still a market for that."