Bulls, bears and pubcos

I was asked recently why the words 'bull' and 'bear' were used to describe a stock market's performance.

Now of course I could well be wrong, but I've always taken it to be that a bull's horns point upwards - good stuff - while a bear, well, bears down on you when it's chasing you through the woods, doesn't it?! Definitely bad stuff.

While we have been flirting with the latter in recent months there's little doubt we've gone beyond that stage; we've been dating it for a while, we've met its parents and now we're thinking about buying it a ring.

Stocks are down, stock markets are down, jobs across a number of recession-vulnerable industries are being cut, and sentiment is worsening with every economic survey.

Depending on whom you believe, we're heading for the worst economic period in decades or merely entering a phase of choppy water which many, though by no means all, will have difficulty navigating.

Will the current economic downturn and a certain amount of political opportunism from Westminster trigger the biggest shift in how pubs do business since the Beer Orders, some 20 years ago?

Many disaffected pubco licensees hope so. The prospect of the pubco model collapsing under a weight of debt that can't be repaid would be a source of satisfaction to a growing number of licensees, many of whom have kept their heads down in recent years and busied themselves with running their pubs rather than taking pot-shots at their landlords. This situation appears to be changing.

On the other hand, pubco chiefs argue that tough times flush out poor operators. But surely not everyone expressing concern for their livelihood is a slacker?

Economic cycles come and go. But it is in the interest of the whole industry that pubcos and their licensees work together in a genuine effort to get through the coming 18 months.