So what have you done since 2004?
Well, we did say that it's on the cards, didn't we. At the start of May, in MA's Comment "Tisc, Tisc — another inquiry?", we pointed out that pubcos could very well, once again, be in the Parliamentary dock. And though the speed with which it's come is a real shock to all sides of the trade, it really shouldn't be a surprise that in the midst of the worst pub downturn in decades, and with pubs closing all over the place, MPs might want to see if the rulers of the pub universe have done all they were asked to do back in Tisc I in December 2004.
The jubilation of the Fair Pint campaigners is understandable. They've pushed hard for a review of Tisc and have got in with some sympathetic MPs. They will now be extremely hopeful that by highlighting why — in their opinion — so many licensees have gone bust in the past few years, they will force radical revision of the pubco model.
But how realistic is that? The answer is probably not very realistic at all. The new inquiry — which, as it comes from Tisc's successor committee the Business & Enterprise Committee, we'll be calling Bec — is not a root and branch inquiry into the pub trade. It will confine itself to seeing whether the seven key recommendations from Tisc have been taken seriously by
the pubcos.
If Bec decides the pubcos have paid mere lip service to the 2004 report's suggestions, it can call for Government to legislate on what it feels are the most serious pubco shortcomings. But at the end of the day, that's all it can do — recommend. And there are probably thousands of select committee reports full of urgent calls for action gathering dust on the shelves of the House of Commons library, ignored and unloved by the government of the day.
That's not to say pubcos can afford to be complacent. Their already sickly shares have fallen further since Bec was announced (poor trading will also have played its part) and may continue to slide as MPs rake over their businesses.
And although Government may ignore whatever Bec recommends, it would be extremely damaging for the trade's image
if pubcos were portrayed as being systematically unfair to their tenants. The problems of new licensee recruitment would become all the greater.
Similarly, it would be hard for the pubcos to blatantly ignore a call from Bec to cut the AWP tie. Though dwindling, these revenues still count for pubcos and to lose them would hurt. Whether tenants can manage AWPs to the maximum effect is another matter.
Pubcos have been putting on a brave face this week. But with so many trading issues on their plate, Bec is a mighty distraction. How much more than that it becomes, we'll know when Bec reports in six months' time.
