Pub sales decline to mirror 2007
Report predicts dip will last for two years
A new report predicts a similar downturn in pub sales this year to that experienced in 2007.
The Public Houses report, from analysts Key Note, said that while the scale of the economic downturn is "currently unclear", consumer confidence is "falling steeply, as are sales of beer in pubs".
"These trends, along with the full effects of the smoking ban having yet to be measured, have led Key Note to forecast a further decline in pub turnover in 2008, similar to the decline seen in 2007.
"A combination of negative factors has forced Key Note to predict a downturn in pub sales for the next two years, followed by a modest improvement.
"Beyond 2009, a moderate recovery is predicted as pubs continue to adapt to new consumer demands (eg for food and wines) and to various government restrictions."
Key Note says the pub market is still "vast", with an estimated value of £16bn in 2007, down 1.5% on 2006. The rise of the gastropub and the continuing segmentation of pubs "may well have aided their endurance".
But it adds: "While the demand for pubs and their services has remained fairly stable, much of the heavy 'session' drinking has shifted from pubs to the home."
It said increasing off-sales have hit pubs, "particularly as there is a growing differential between supermarket and pub prices".
Weekend drinking most popular
Drinking at weekends and eating in pubs is getting more popular, according to a survey of 983 British adults by Key Note.
The survey found 63% said weekends are the most popular time to visit pubs, compared to 49% in a study in 2002. Also, 69% now eat pub meals, up from previous surveys.
