Talking 'bout a recession

It has been argued by those infinitely more sage-like than me that one can talk one's self into an economic downturn. If this is how it works it would seem a lot of people have been feverishly muttering to themselves in recent months.

Last week the world's largest central banks pumped US$236,000,000,000 - that's £118bn - into the global economy in an effort to restore confidence in the 'system', the biggest such injection of cash since the 1930s. For some observers the banks might as well have jointly signed a letter that read "sorry guys, we're all going to hell in a handcart".

Then we had Alistair Darling's heaping misery on the trade in the form of a 4p tax rise on a pint of beer, 55p on spirits and 14p on wine.

City types I spoke with acknowledged the above-inflation price hikes on alcohol would, in the context of everything else currently hitting consumers and licensees alike, be the inverse equivalent of the cherry on the cake. But surprisingly few were taken aback by the level of the increase, unlike those in the pub and brewing sectors.

Will such an increase dissuade people from visiting pubs, given everything else? Maybe not. A number of pubco chief executives I spoke to, while greatly angered by the move, felt few people would change their drinking habits as a result. One went further, suggesting much of what was in the current spate of doom 'n' gloom surveys was more sentiment than evidence of existing or predictable behaviour.

With this in mind, if we can talk ourselves into a recession, can we talk our way out of one? Confidence breeds confidence, and all that, even if it starts with crossed fingers and eyes tightly shut.

Listed pubcos will be the industry's barometer in the coming months. True, they've got shareholders to keep happy, but they've also a duty to tell it how it is, even if a gloss is put on things from time to time.

We shall all be watching events with considerable interest…