Burdens and shocks

Despite seeing his 550p a share bid for Mitchells & Butlers (M&B) politely but firmly escorted out of the room a couple of years ago, it appears Robert Tchenguiz finally has the managed pubco right where he wants it.

By controlling nearly a quarter of the group's issued shares, Tchenguiz is in a prime position to exert his not insignificant influence when it comes to any potential takeover. Merger. Tie-up. Whatever.

This will doubtless help soothe the multi-millionaire property tycoon's woes concerning another of his pub investments, Laurel Pub Company. News that Laurel's wet-led businesses are finding times tough is not exactly a shock. After all, many wet-led businesses are.

That said, in spite of what Laurel's management says publicly about trying to evolve brands such as Yates's, Hog's Head, etc in today's market, it appears they have become rather a burden.

Tens of Yates's leased sites are up for grabs, though it seems there are few takers. This presumably bothers Laurel's landlords not a jot, happy as they must be to hoover up hundreds of thousands of pounds in rent every year.

In the current market that's got to hurt, even for someone as comfortably off as Mr T.

A shocking prediction

I heard a shocking prediction recently. Well, it shocked me. In five years the number of free-of-tie independently-run pubs - currently around 16,000 of the UK's 58,000-strong estate - could be a fraction of what it is today. This would be down to a potent combination of market pressures and tempting offers from cash-rich pub operators and property developers.

Hard to contemplate, but quite possible. No doubt those pubs which survive such a 'cull', if it happens, will be the best in the business.

But is this what was envisaged at the time of the Beer Orders? I think not.