Pubcos 'hopeful' about prospects for 2008

More than half of the UK's managed pub companies are gloomy about prospects for the first quarter of 2008, according to a survey conducted by the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers (ALMR).

However when asked about confidence for the year as a whole, 48 per cent of those companies polled - representing around 5,000 managed pubs - said they were "hopeful" about trading prospects.

The ALMR said the "clear message is that drinks sales are down almost universally, with companies with predominantly community locals suffering the worst.

"It is the mid size, mid market companies that are outperforming. Just under a third of companies reported positive growth in liquor sales and all but one of those had an estate of fewer than 50 outlets."

Of those reporting liquor growth, half had an estate of between 20-50 pubs and 40 per cent had fewer than 20 outlets.

The smoking ban was a factor in people's confidence, the ALMR said, but "significantly, respondents were almost unanimous in blaming customer confidence as the key contributory factor in their performance (only one didn't mention it); and 53% listed it exclusively".

On the subject of food in pubs, the trade body said "almost three quarters of respondents reporting growth and only 27 per cent of respondents showing a decline - and all of these had reported negative liquor sales so were having a bad time all round - and they were the locals.

"The figures for food showed if anything even greater variance with a range of a 6.9 per cent decline to 17 per cent growth. Of those achieving positive growth, 36 per cent had also achieved positive liquor growth - and these are the 'star performers', bucking the market and general doom and gloom to return good like-for-likes and three quarters of those star performers had an estate less than 20.

"The other two thirds achieving positive growth had done so despite having below average liquor sales."

In conclusion the ALMR said: "This survey is comparing tough trading circumstances against really exceptional ones - and so the like-for-likes appear much worse.

"Food obviously held up strongly as you would expect at this time of year but the note of caution is that it costs more to serve and net margins are lower; so turnover may be up but this doesn't necessarily translate into profit.

"The eternal truths remain - that well invested pubs with food fared well; those who got their act together, focused on Christmas and New Year came out better overall."