The shape of things to come

Fears of recession or a chance for profit and growth? Industry bosses tell the MA what the future holds

Jonathan Neame

Chief executive, Shepherd Neame

Corporate goal for the year?

To pursue continued long-term development of all parts of the business, with further modernisation of brewery facilities and new brands such as Asahi Super Dry in particular.

Any opportunity to grow your business?

Shepherd Neame is driven by quality not quantity. We will invest in pubs that can grow in tomorrow's market and continue to divest ourselves of lesser performing pubs. Quality pubs will continue to grow in value and profitability.

If there is a downturn in the economy, how bad is it going to get?

There is little doubt trade will be difficult through the winter, and early 2008 will be particularly challenging, but consumer confidence should improve in the spring.

Where's the light at the end of the tunnel?

Even in a declining market, there are always opportunities for good quality beer and pubs. Speciality and regional beers are in growth. The changing market will create new opportunities.

If political pressure increases, what's our best form of defence?

Promoting responsible consumption of low-alcohol drinks - ie, beer in a controlled environment - is in the country's interest. Pubs are part of the solution, not the problem.

Biggest challenge your business faces?

The inflationary pressures on the business, in particular malt and utility prices.

Favourite quotation or business adage?

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Nick Bish

Chief executive, Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers

Corporate goal for the year?

To confirm the ALMR's focus on independent companies in the pubs, bars and restaurants sector and to make us their must-join organisation.

Any opportunity for businesses to

grow?

Managed multiple operators are superbly equipped to operate individual sites or parcels of pubs, for which the pubcos cannot find sufficient competent and capitalised individual lessees.

If there is a downturn in the economy, how bad is it going to get?

We are on the downswing of the economic cycle. The long expected pub closures are happening and for some it will get worse before it gets better.

Where's the light at the end of the tunnel?

Cask ale is the new wine - it deserves attention.

If political pressure increases, what's our best form of defence?

Doing our job responsibly, competently and imaginatively. Let us be judged by our performance, but lose no opportunity to promote our successes.

Biggest challenge your business faces?

Government failing to understand that

when it comes to a controlled drinking environment, pubs are the solution, not the problem.

Personal goal for the year?

To learn to manage the size of my email

inbox.

Favourite quotation or business adage?

Always recruit people who are better than you are.

Bruce Ray

Director of external affairs, Bacardi Brown-Forman Brands

Corporate goal for the year?

To demonstrate that the industry in which we work delivers regularly, in moderation and responsibly to those consumers who wish to enjoy our brands. In addition, we want to work further to tackle the issues that exist in the UK drinks industry.

Any opportunity to grow your business?

Every UK business fundamentally must aim to have a strategy of growth.

If there is a downturn in the economy, how bad is it going to get?

We feel the forecasted downturn in the economy will become a reality and will get worse. It is likely to hit all companies.

Where's the light at the end of the tunnel?

The industry is under pressure, but a lot of it is unjustified. The levels of binge drinking are coming down, but the facts are not publicised.

If political pressure increases, what's our best form of defence?

The industry has many initiatives tackling the issues. The major manufacturers support the Drinkaware Trust. In addition, there are many responsible drinks programmes, such as Best Bar None, which are increasingly trying to develop sensible drinking environments.

Biggest challenge your business faces?

Developing our brands in the face of pressure from the external environment.

Personal goal for the year?

Seeing London Irish Rugby Club win the European Cup.

Favourite quotation or business adage?

Regular, moderate consumption is good for our brands and causes no harm to consumers - some sources would say it has health benefits.

Benet Slay

Managing director, Diageo GB

Corporate goal for the year?

Our main aim is to drive growth in our brands and their categories. To do this we need to have a multi-pronged approach, including delivering strong marketing and brand-building campaigns; driving quality through training; ensuring our sales teams provide our customers with the necessary support; delivering innovation and, of course, continuing to work in partnership with industry members to develop activity to combat alcohol misuse and promote a shared understanding of responsible drinking.

Any opportunity to grow your business?

Driving footfall has probably never been so challenging. But going to the pub still remains one of our country's favourite pastimes and they play a vital part in community life.

Ensuring people are offered a fantastic experience, service and products every time is really the only way we can boost trade. For us, we think part of the experience can be enhanced through the spirits category and delivering great-tasting long drinks.

People are increasingly going to the pub for a relaxed get together with friends, rather than a more high-energy evening out. Being able to better position spirits as a drink to enjoy on these occasions will obviously benefit our business, but considering spirits and mixers are the most profitable category in the on-trade they will deliver better profit for licensees as well. Spirits is also an area where the on-trade can really differentiate itself from drinking at home. There is definitely skill and knowledge to making a cocktail or long spirit drink.

If there is a downturn in the economy, how bad is it going to get?

The recent announcements by the Bank of England on lowering interest rates will help stave off some of the concerns, but I think it would be ignorant to say 2008 is not going to be a challenging year for the trade, though

it wouldn't be the first challenging year we

have faced.

Where's the light at the end of the tunnel?

The smoking ban, while creating some challenges for the on-trade, has also created opportunities. The landscape of the on-trade is evolving, and the occasions when people are visiting pubs and bars are changing.

The increase in people visiting pubs more

for meals has been well reported. Another trend is the increase in women going to pubs and people choosing to celebrate a special occasion at the pub.

These create an opportunity for the on-trade to ensure they are providing a great experience for their customers in outlet, have an exciting drinks menu on offer, provide great customer service and a great environment. People are becoming more and more discerning. As an industry we need to ensure we are offering people an experience that is aligned to this.

If political pressure increases, what's our best form of defence?

We take the problem of excessive drinking very seriously. Responsible drinking is a complex area and there is no single solution to reducing alcohol harm.

Diageo is committed to working with partners like the Government, trade associations, the Portman Group and others to develop programmes that promote responsible drinking and combat alcohol misuse. We are making a significant investment in the promotion of responsible attitudes to alcohol and are reaching more consumers than ever before