Mixed festive fortunes for pubs
Licensees and pub operators were this week coming to terms with disappointing Christmas and New Year trading, which saw the smoking ban and consumer-belt tightening take their toll on pub takings.
Early feedback from licensees and pubcos pointed to a mixed bag of results with New Year's Eve trade a particular disappointment.
A straw poll of 40 operators conducted by Blue Oar Leisure analyst Mark Brumby revealed positive trading in the week up to Christmas but a late start.
Companies reported that per-head spending had fallen, with wet trade and machine sales down, while food volumes held up.
A number of licensees have told me they are now over-stocked and have not bothered putting dray orders in this weekTony PayneFLVA
Brumby said that while event pre-bookings remained good, walk-in business suffered, with the smoke ban being blamed for deterring "chance drinkers".
Late surge
Analyst Douglas Jack, of Panmure Gordon, said better-positioned operators had capitalised on a late surge of business to achieve a positive outcome for December.
But he added that overall Christmas trading had been "mixed", with quality food operators performing best and land-locked community pubs trading negatively.
"The restaurant sector is becoming one with winners and losers, with the residential pub sector polarising, with all last year's 2% fall in supply accounted for by wet-led pubs," Jack said.
Managed pub operator Barracuda, which runs 216 premium, sports and student bars, saw sales rise 3%.
But other managed companies were reluctant to discuss trading performance. One operator, Laurel, said it was too early to reveal definitive trends.
Several pointed to Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve falling on a Monday, which meant tagging the two big "celebration" nights on to the end of busy weekends.
Over stocked
Federation of Licensed Victuallers Associations chief executive Tony Payne said feedback from licensees had been "very mixed".
"A number of licensees have told me they are now over-stocked and have not bothered putting dray orders in this week," Payne said.
Early feedback on January trade points to a sizeable downturn. Licensees and pubcos forecast a difficult first quarter, with big brewery prices increases in the pipeline and the prospect of a duty increase in the spring Budget.
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