Pete Robinson:...A new one just begun

My apologies in advance for sounding such a doom merchant but I've racking my addled brain and still can't make any positive predictions in the present climate.

The City's money men together with our politicians are trying to talk down concern about the state of the economy and fears over the ongoing global credit crunch. But let me tell you the truth - our economy is well and truly knackered.

Much like Japan's 'bubble' economy before it burst, ours has become somewhat dependent on property prices which are already declining and set to go into freefall. Historically pub property values follow the home property sector by around six months.

Nu-Labour's Government 'should' have passed on some of the bountiful harvest from all those halcyon years of growth to the end user, you and me, thus effectively bolstering the British economy against future hiccups. Reinvestment. It's simple text book economics.

But they didn't. Instead they plundered it all in tax and flogged off our gold reserves at an all time low price. Unnecessary revenue that's been frittered and wasted on a criminal scale. The Taxpayer's Alliance estimates that for every five pounds collected in tax one pound goes down the toilet.

Avoidable waste like creating many hundreds of thousands of public sector non-jobs, gargantuan computer systems that don't work, paying illegal immigrants £3000 each to temporarily leave the country and sending a team of artists to the north pole to build a snowman.

What this means is that as we wade deeper into the uncertain waters of recession the average pubgoer is increasingly feeling the pinch. With rising fuel bills to pay, bloated council tax increases and all round inflated living costs he's got to tighten his belt and make some savings somewhere.

But where? With the £4 pint on it's way you needn't look too hard. As some disgruntled smokers have already demonstrated 'staying in' is fast becoming the new 'going out'.

With plasma screen TVs and cut-priced supermarket tinnies the home isn't such a desolate place these days. Get a few mates round, pop into Blockbusters then pick up a takeaway on the way home and you have all the ingredients of a fun night out without the expense.

So 2008 is already shaping up to be a piss poor year for the trade. The only thing that could possibly worsen matters is the meddlesome interference of our beloved politicians.

Take Gordon Brown (I wish somebody would!). This wretched, conniving individual really gives me the creeps. Uggh. That cold, emotionless camera-smile, like a shark at the moment of engulfing it's prey. He's cost me and mine so much over the last 10 years if I were to meet him today I'd blind him in the other eye with a biro.

When Brown promises a "cultural shift" against binge drinking he means revenue raising via swingeing tax hikes that will hit the on-trade hard. In 2008 alcohol will be the new tobacco with ordinary pub regulars increasingly denounced as a dangerous, socially-irresponsible rabble.

Statistics will show an overwhelming public demand for action, ushering in punitive duty increases that will make 10% look like a pleasant dream. Round-the-clock off-sales will continue in the 910 supermarkets granted 24-hour licences while he's happy to see Britain's pub stock fall to around half of present numbers.

Last week's trumpeted crusade to save the nation's health is another con. He hopes to save billions by making the NHS available only to those who are at the peak of health. The rest of us who drink, smoke, eat fatty foods or dare to grow old should crawl away somewhere and die quietly - so that the Treasury can then steal 40% of your estate.

But the greedy eyes of Brown and his Darling puppet-chancellor are firmly set on a plump, new vein - food. The average annual food bill for a UK household now tops £5000, most of which is zero-rated. In the name of health the Treasury could tax everything with a trace of sugar, salt or fat leaving just raw fruit 'n veg untouched to 'prove' it's for our benefit.

You may think because you can reclaim any VAT it won't affect your food trade but the knock-on effect will rocket the cost of your basic ingredients towards the moon. That's before 'fat taxes' that are surely coming, next year if not this. All for the nation's health of course.

If you followed official advice and raised your game since the smoking ban by developing the food side of your business this is your reward. With the minimum wage creeping up ahead of inflation and business rates set for a 10% hike all these additional expenses must be passed on to your diners.

At a time when the food market is shrinking you will find increased competition this year as neighbouring pubs desperately go food-led while takeaways stage a fightback. It adds up to a price war with Indian and Chinese restaurants pushing all-you-can-eat deals at break-even prices.

These are dark times and sadly many pubs won't survive. CAMRA says 56 pubs have gone to the wall every month since the ban.

Personally I estimate we'll have around 1800 less pubs this time next year. Treble that figure for 2009.

The government won't shed a tear. Neither will the antis - it's what they wanted all along.

2008 will prove beyond doubt that it really is war on pubs. Stop building shelters. It's time to start cleaning your rifle.