Grim outlook for pubs as sales freefall

Horrendous sales figures over August and September saw on-trade liquor volumes nose dive by 7%, casting further doubts over the long-term ability of 2,000 UK pubs to survive.

Beer sales alone over the two months witnessed a huge 10% drop as the two months failed to compensate for the disastrous summer. Grim predictions are that as many as 2,000 pubs could close their doors over the next two years or so if volumes continue to free fall.

Trade in October and November offers no prospect of an improvement as the worsening economy and the smoking ban continue to hit the pockets of pub-goers.

The latest on-trade figures for the year to the end of September produced by market analyst AC Nielsen reflect a growing blanket of gloom now enshrouding the brewing and pub industry.

Consultant Graham Page said a growing string of negatives have combined to hit pub spending. "Pubs have been hit by a five-stroke whammy over the past few months with the wobbling economy, poor summer, smoking ban, rising energy prices and a rapidly cooling housing market taking their toll.

"I do not think you could invent the kind of scenario which is now engulfing the trade, and prospects for the New Year could be even worse," he warned.

Page said brewers were already forecasting higher-than-inflation wholesale price rises and England's exit from Euro 2008 had destroyed any lingering feel-good factor.

"We could see as many as 2,000 pubs close over the next two years or so if these volume declines continue."

Slowdown in all on-trade categories

Hardly a single on-trade drinks category remained unscathed over August and September, and even cider is now showing a marked slowdown from its heady performances of a year ago.

Total liquor was down 4% on the year (7% bi-month), with beer down 6% on the year (10% bi-month).

Wine was down 4% on the year but just 1% in decline over the bi-month, mainly thanks to dining-market growth and bigger-sized glasses.

Spirits were down 3% on the year with a bi-month drop of 4%, while soft drinks dropped 3% on the year and 7% through the bi-month period. Cider showed a 14% increase on the year, but

bi-monthy remained static.