2,000 pubs could close for good

Horrendous sales figures over August and September saw on-trade liquor volumes nosedive by 7% posing further long term doubts over the ability of hundreds of UK pubs to survive.

Beer sales alone over the two months witnessed a huge 10% drop as the two months failed to compensate for the disastrous summer.

Grim predictions are that as many as 2,000 pubs could close their doors over the next two years or so if volumes continue to freefall.

Trade in October and November offers no prospect of an improvement as the worsening economy and the smoking ban continue to hit the pockets of pubgoers.

It could be we will see as many as 2,000 pubs close over the next two years or so if these volume declines continue​Graham PageAC Nielsen

The latest on-trade figures for the year to the end of September produced by market analyst AC Nielsen reflects a growing blanket of gloom now enshrouding the brewing and pub industry.

String of negatives​

Consultant Graham Page says a growing string of negatives have combined to hit pub spending.

"Pubs have been hit by a five stroke whammy over the past few months with the wobbling economy, poor summer, smoking ban, rising energy prices and a rapidly cooling housing market taking their toll. ​

"I do not think you could invent the kind of scenario which now engulfs the trade and prospects for the New Year could be even worse," he warned.

Page said brewers were already forecasting higher-than-inflation wholesale price rises and England's recent exit from Euro 2008 had destroyed any lingering feel good factor.

"The steady drop in on-trade volumes, coupled with cheap off-trade drinks prices, must now threaten the future of many borderline pubs. ​

"It could be we will see as many as 2,000 pubs close over the next two years or so if these volume declines continue.

"We are simply not seeing people visiting pubs in sufficient numbers or for long enough and it could be there needs to be a cull to ensure that the ones which remain in business get healthier financially," Page suggested.

Dismal volumes​

Hardly a single on-trade drinks category remained unscathed over August and September and even cider is now showing a marked slow down from its previous heady performances of a year ago.

Total liquor was down 4% on the year (7% bi-month) with beer down 6% on the year (10% bi-month).

Wine was down 4% on the year but just 1% in decline over the bi-month mainly thanks to dining market growth and bigger size glasses,spirits were down 3% on the year with a bi-month drop of 4%, while soft drinks dropped 3% on the year and 7% through the bi-month period.

Cider showed a 14% increase on the year, but bi-monthy remained static.