To hell in a handcart?

Snaking their way along many of our cities' streets last week, the queues of people waiting to withdraw money from branches of Northern Rock hardly filled one with confidence in the 'System'. While the problem was said to be specific to the bank, experts still harked back to crises past, warning of imminent financial meltdown.

So should pub operators, sole traders, multiples or giant pubcos, be worried by recent financial events?

The short answer is 'no'. Bank stocks recovered, albeit after the Chancellor's promise of government help, and while debt markets are battening down the hatches, most pub-related deals have been done - for now.

But concerns about the levels of personal debt remain, as do fears at the reduced spending power of the indebted. We haven't had a 'proper' recession for a while, after all.

While scary, the listed pub sector's own share price slump last week probably had as much to do with Mitchells & Butlers' announcement - that its losses arising from the postponement of its R20 joint venture were set to double - as concerns over consumer spending. Many stocks mounted a healthy fight-back as the week went on, but nerves were rattled all the same.

Pubs are resilient, but - here I return to a familiar theme - it's clear the old economic fallback of them being a place to spend time and money drowning one's sorrows is on the wane. Many still want their old boozer, but a growing number want something more.

Pubs are having to evolve into different beasts, thanks - or not - to the smoking ban. Extinction for some is a genuine concern, but a growing number will seek to up their game.

One operator I spoke to recently believes we'll be looking at pub closures numbering in the "thousands" in 12 months time. Another industry type noted, "you never have to close down a 'good' pub". Ambitious operators will be aiming to be among the latter…