THE AGENTS

It is a little premature to pass judgement on the full effects of the smoking ban on the future valuations of licensed businesses. Also, the prevailing conditions within the spring and summer have been somewhat extreme, with eight weeks of torrential rain, foot and mouth, interest rate rises and the Government in turmoil about who should lead it.

However, we appear to be experiencing an Indian summer - we have a new Prime Minister and the effects of the ban will not fully bite until the dark evenings and driving sleet arrive, along with any upward movements in interest rates (speculation). Then, and only then, will customers nail their colours to the mast and decide a) if they are going to visit a pub at all, b) what type of pub, and c) what the occasion or reason for the visit will be.

This will obviously affect sales and profits and that's when the true position will become clear - ie, the second VAT quarter of 2008 or in the next year-end profit-and-loss account. Valuers do not expect a great movement in the multiples used at present for freeholds or leaseholds, as a good business is, and will still be, a good business.

We have been keeping a close eye on the stats that drive our business and have noticed neither a rush of new property coming to market, nor a slow-down in completed sales or offers, nor yet a high level of withdrawn offers during the past six months.

On the contrary, things are very busy, which fills us full of confidence for next year. The first half of the year saw a record number of completed sales for the firm.

But as they say, the devil is in the detail, and when we measure a full 12-month effect this time next year, it will be interesting to see the outcome. My money is on there still being a strong interest in taking on a licensed business, as the positive reasons remain - it's enjoyable (well, most of the time), it provides an excellent return on investment and effort (you get out what you put in), you are your own boss (but don't tell the wife) and often you get to live in outstanding historic properties in locations where domestic property would possibly be out of your reach.

The strange thing is that, in a village with a good hostelry, the domestic property values can go up by as much as 20% - now that's worth pointing out to your locals.