THE GUV'NOR Bernard Brindley

The licensee of the White Lion in Pailton, Warwickshire reflects on a challenging 2006 and predicts more of the same for 2007

As the last Guvnor of 2006, it's down to me to reflect on the good and the bad in the past year and to predict some of the misfortunes and benefits of 2007.

Although the summer weather was kind to us, it has been a difficult year, with beer sales decreasing even further. There has been a staggering 40% decline in the last 25 years. The new Licensing Act and its costs (around £2,000 per pub), higher utility bills, insurance rates and wages have all hit the bottom-line.

In 2007, the smoking ban will see beer sales decline further and also bring extra costs as pubs try to cater for those who do smoke.

I predict the ban alone

will close over 5,000 pubs - significant when added to

the 1,000 already closed in 2006. We know there is

over-capacity and this will help to redress the balance, but do not allow yourself to get into difficulty. If you do, speak to your brewery or pubco before it's too late.

In January 2007, the BII's accreditation of codes of practice for pubcos and

breweries comes into force. This will make a huge

difference in our industry as all codes have to be crystal-clear and unambiguous.

Ask, has their code of

practice been accredited? If not, why not? What have they got to hide? Ask them for a copy of their code and make sure your BDM fully explains all negotiations, especially rent and machine income, with supporting figures as to how they were determined. They are obliged to respond, and if they don't you should report them to their

superiors. Although the codes of practice cannot affect the terms of your lease, there are substantial benefits in it for all.

Also in 2007, John Grogan, MP for Selby, is putting forward an early day motion in Parliament to investigate below-cost sale of beers in supermarkets. This is having a damning effect on our pubs and is not responsible alcohol retailing. Please write or phone your own MP to support John's campaign.

I will finish off with the eagerly-awaited outcome of the independent fees review panel. I still envisage a higher fee than previously.

I hope it is not all going to be depressing in the new year, but try and take some time off with your families, have a very, very merry Christmas, and let's look forward to 2007 with some trepidation.