City Comment: Hamish Champ
Never mind what people say about the 'boldest grabbing the prize' and other snappy, industry guru-esque clichés; business people warm to certainty.
In the old days brewers and pub operators annually delivered admirable but not terribly exciting numbers. Few got excited on results day. After all, these companies were making beer and selling it in establishments that were open to the public. Shares languished.
But appreciating that valuable property assets work better if they have good products and customer experiences to offer, shares in many - though not all - publicly quoted pubcos and brewers are now taking a sharp upward path.
What are the chances of this situation seeing a dramatic volte-face? Slim, I'd say, but that doesn't mean there aren't potential gremlins hiding in the [pub/bar] cellar.
There is anecdotal evidence suggesting that some leading banks are getting a tad twitchy vis-a-vis their overall lending to the licensed trade, particularly when considering deals involving the High Street.
While this strand of the industry is showing signs of evolving, with many traditionally vertical drinking establishments looking to broaden their appeal and veer towards offering more food, the 'main drag' is still bedevilled with over-capacity issues and some degree of fallout remains likely.
Not everyone appreciated my repeating the comments of 'behavioural finance expert' James Montier, who cast various aspersions on City analysts. It was put to me that by airing Montier's bizarre observations I was lending credence to the man's less-than-flattering assessment of the broking community. As a former analyst myself I interpreted Montier's 'findings' with a large pinch of the white stuff. Sad others didn't see it the same way.
