Myth of pub trade profits dispelled

Major new research has blown a hole in claims the pub industry will reap millions of pounds in extra profits from the new licensing laws.

Just one in 20 (five per cent) adults say they will spend more money in pubs when later opening comes in, while even among regular pub-goers just six per cent say they will drink more.

Thousands of pub-goers and licensed trade insiders were quizzed for the report, compiled by respected research house Mintel and revealed exclusively by The Publican this week.

Among other findings, the Late Licensing study concludes that: *Later opening will not automatically equal higher profits *Due to the extra staffing costs and other overheads, the "novelty" of later opening is likely to wear off quickly for many pubs *Only eight per cent of adults say they are likely to go out later if pubs are open late at night. Of these, most are young people who already stay out late, mainly at weekends.

In conclusion the report states that the government's impending action on smoking is likely to have a far greater impact on pubs than the change to the licensing laws.

Mintel leisure analyst Mark Brechin, who oversaw the report, said it was clear that later opening was no "panacea" for the pub trade. "Our research certainly suggests consumers aren't chomping at the bit to go out and use these new laws - and there is unlikely to be mass disorder after November 24," he said. "It has to be properly managed by pubs, the police and local authorities, but what's clear is there won't be thousands of extra people going out late at night."

Mike Benner, chief executive of the Campaign for Real Ale, said the report rang true. "A lot of pubs are making applications for one or two extra hours at weekends and this fits very well with modern consumer patterns. People might stay longer in the pub, but they'll be more relaxed about drinking."

Jackie Pattinson, licensee at the Swan in the City of London - one of the few pubs to have been granted a licence to open 24 hours - said: "We're not expecting it to make a huge difference to our pub, but it will be great to have the flexibility. People only have so much money to spend. It's not as if they're going to find an extra £20 a day to bring to the pub, is it?"

The Mintel report also claims that many people are being discouraged from going out into city centres and urges the government to address the problem.

Mintel added that the number of UK pubs has remained fairly stable at around 70,000 since 2000.