Hopes and fears for future

Food is seen as the main growth area, while red tape tops the problems, but most feel they have a secure future at their pub

Prospects for the year ahead

When asked to predict what the next 12 months had in store, a small majority think it will improve, and only 13% think it will get worse though this is a slight downgrading from the optimism shown in the 2004 survey.

Opinions vary little by pub type, but it does appear that optimism about the 2005/6 year rises with turnover.

The opportunities

Areas cited for growth in 2005/6 echo those voiced in the previous year, with food and accommodation leading the way.

Interestingly, food was singled out by 56% of those currently serving food and 10% of those who presently do not.

Hopes for real ale remained the same at 7% although wine has increased in prominence with double the number of licensees 6% looking to grow sales.

The threats

Bureaucracy, the new licensing laws and the threat of a smoking ban, followed by complaints about supermarkets' pricing, are uppermost here.

Bad publicity surrounding binge drinking is also mentioned as a worry.

The possible move to a complete smoking ban would hit freetrade pubs hard as only 12% of pubs have non-smoking bar zones at present (of which one in four have a smoking and a non-smoking bar area).

Top 10 growth opportunities in 2005 (%)

1 Food41

2 Accommodation/B&B12

3 Function room7

4 Real ale7

5 Cask ales6

6 Wine6

7 Increasing capacity5

8 Refurbishment2

9 Beer garden/outside bars5

10 Extended hours4

Top 10 problems in 2005 (%)

1 Bureaucracy/red tape40

2 New licensing33

3 Smoking issues22

4 Supermarkets19

5 Increased costs13

6 Local authorities10

7 Duty/taxation8

8 Bad publicity/being blamed8

9 Rules & regs/licensing laws6

10Cheap beer from other sources5

Future security

Most freetraders feel they have a secure future at their current pub, though 15% say they do not, while 6% did not answer either way.

Community pubs are more nervous than the others, as are those with the smallest turnover (with the largest pubs being the most secure).

In terms of deciding how long respondents plan to stay at their pubs, 36% have already made up their minds the same as in 2004.

The only significant variation on last year is that newcomers to the trade appear to be the most decisive, with 50% of them saying they have made a decision.

On average, these respondents intend to stay four to five years (similar to 2004), although 52% say they will move within three years (compared to 44% in 2004).

Country pubs seem to have longer timespans, while community pubs have the shortest. Those who have been at the pub for 11 to 15 years are the most likely to move soon.

And the ongoing struggle to acquire good freehouses means owners will not have a problem selling when they do want to move on. In the last year, 83% of respondents (81% in 2004) have had an unsolicited approach to sell their pub.

Reflecting the extent of the demand, this varies little by pub type, but considerably by length of tenure, with 66% of the newest (up to two years) having been approached, compared to 92% of those who have been in business for 21 years or more.

When it comes to finding a freehouse, the majority of those asked one third found their current pub through a property agent (down from 40% in 2004), while just over a fifth did so by word of mouth.

Average time when you expect to move

Type Years

Total4.5

Country3.9

Town3.1

Community2.7

Other3.2