2004 - what the movers and shakers said
The Publican asked the analysts, corporate financiers and industry players to comment on the issues and trends they believe will be pertinent in 2005.
"We will continue to see customers demanding ever more quality in the pubs they choose to frequent. Consumers are also consistently moving away from smoking and there are a huge number of people who currently don't go into pubs because they don't like smoke. Another potential area of opportunity for the industry will come from the government's policy on developing brown field sites." |
"Scale is the key to success and consolidation of the smaller players will accelerate across the board in the pub sector. If the larger players haven't reached a critical mass they will not survive." |
"The industry is already fairly consolidated and what is mainly left are a lot of low-quality pubs. So people like Enterprise and Punch will begin to concentrate on improving their existing estates." |
"The industry will work its way around smoking, which will not be the disaster some believe it will. Property value at the bottom end of the pub market will become increasingly important as companies like Punch and Enterprise trade up their estates and, if all the talk by the government comes to fruition, the town centres might be cleaned up, with fewer pubs, fewer operators, and perhaps a chance for some to make money." |
"There will be continued consolidation in both the leased/tenanted and managed sectors and an easing out of smaller companies. Quality will become the key concern for the industry next year as customers' expectations continue to rise and this should be to the benefit of cask ale. There will also be a backlash against staying at home where people have all the material goods they need but not the experience you can have by going to the pub." |
"The big thing will be the cumulative effect of legislation and regulations from government, plus taxation, more rules from the police, environmental health issues, and so on, and all this has accelerated in pace quite dramatically over past twelve months. This ballooning weight of rules and regulations could potentially overwhelm the industry if this trend continues. There needs to be a more cohesive response from the industry to prevent good operators from becoming heavily dis-incentivised." |
