FEATURE: Is this going to be the Christmas the trade needs?

Last Christmas​, the title of Wham’s famous festive hit and a period of time many publicans will recall as a trading roller-coaster.

While CGA by NIQ’s Daily Drinks Tracker reported a strong end for 2023, the 7% rise only came in the final fortnight of the year. It was supposed to be a big one – the first normal post-Covid Christmas but November – and the first two weeks of December – had been quieter than the same period in previous years.

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The cost-of-living crisis and inflationary pressures no doubt created the unpredictable footfall and lacklustre results of Christmas 2023. Now, with inflation easing a little, will we get the Christmas we wanted last year, this year instead?

Cathy Olver, retail director Star Pubs doesn’t foresee a big change, predicting a continuation of smaller low-key get-togethers that have replaced the large Christmas bashes of years gone by.

Taking the time to analyse past data now will equip you to craft a festive wine list.

Her predictions do come with a positive footnote, however, which is that no matter the economic backdrop, punters will always splash out at the most wonderful time of the year.

Chris Rhys-Davies, senior category manager, Heineken UK, is also certain the forthcoming festive season could be profitable for pubs, pointing to CGA’s Evolving High Tempo Occasion Report​, which reveals 60% of people who go to the pub to celebrate something are more likely to do so at Christmas. Of these, 90% will visit the same or more frequently over the festive period compared to the rest of the year.

Fail to plan, plan to fail ​

The signs point to 2024’s festive season being full of potential, so while you might have to dig deep to find the energy to plan for it when you’re still clearing empties from the beer garden, it pays to get organised now so you can capitalise on the increased footfall in three months’ time.  

“Pubs may be reluctant to commit their purchasing too far in advance this year, as continuing issues with consumer confidence make forecasting demand a challenge,” admits Rachel Dobson, managing director of hospitality buying specialists Lynx Purchasing, “but with the summer holidays out of the way there will already be groups looking around for somewhere to book their Christmas meal.” 

Whether your pub serves food or not, this month is crunch-time for planning and promoting your festive offerings. Food pubs, get menus drawn up now, then advertise your festive specials everywhere you can think of – from in your pub itself, to the homepage of your pub’s website and social media channels.

“It’s important to promote well ahead while people are mulling their options,” says Star Pubs’ Olver, who suggests incentivising early food bookings with money off, added value extras or bounce back offers to secure trade.

Heineken UK’s Rhys-Davies advises operators check their online reservation forms and contact details are up-to-date on websites and social channels to ensure bookings can be easily locked in. Early bookings have benefits other than guaranteeing trade: “Reservations and pre-orders can also help with stock orders and staff rotas to ensure a smooth-running, more enjoyable experience for guests and staff alike,” he adds.

With summer now behind us, Caitlin Owens, hospitality director at the Millbrook Inn in Southpool, Devon, will be grabbing time with her head chef Tom Westerland to plan for the festive season at their country pub.  

“We will draft a Christmas party menu and agree a price because enquiries usually start coming in around early September,” she says. “By October, we will work out which returning students and seasonal staff are available, and will try to have a rough rota in place for the Christmas week before we close in November.”

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Owens, who will be experiencing her fourth Christmas at the Millbrook Inn this year, usually focuses her festive attention towards the latter part of December.

“We are a bit off the beaten track for work Christmas parties,” she explains. “The highlight of the festive season is probably the village nativity, which is normally held the last Wednesday before Christmas.”
This Southpool tradition sees villagers perform a live nativity around the village with the pub as the lynchpin, so it is inevitably busy that day. The pub then shuts on Christmas Day and Boxing Day before reopening on 27 December. Owens recalls how it was busy from then through to New Year’s Day when they host a big band and soul singer in the pub’s courtyard.

Crunch the (personalised) data ​

Anyone feeling apprehensive about Christmas this year and uncertain how to plan ahead should take a leaf out of Owen’s book.

Understanding your market and tailoring your offer – and opening hours – accordingly is a sensible approach. You’ll be less likely to have excess staff if you’ve overbooked during a quiet period and won’t be trying to shift boozy festive drinks during dry January.

It’s also advisable to review the calendar before organising and promoting anything.

This year, Heineken UK’s Rhys-Davies recommends pubs prepare for a busy last Friday – dubbed Mad Friday – and Saturday before Christmas Day and Christmas Eve (in this case, 20 and 21 ​December) “as people wind down, perhaps heading for one last post-work gathering with colleagues before switching off”.

He also notes the final Friday before New Year’s Eve this year falls on 27 December, so prepare to welcome extra guests over that weekend, especially if you’ve been closed the previous two days.

Although he’s referring to wine sales, Lanchester Wines’ Tom van der Neut’s advice to focus on the areas that resonated best with your customers and your specific venue in previous years is useful for all aspects of business when forecasting for this festive season.

“Since purchasing preferences can vary greatly among different pubs, even within towns and pubcos, taking the time to analyse past data now will equip you to craft a festive wine list that meets your clientele’s tastes while also ensuring you are able to forecast accurately.”

Crunching the data on previous years and assessing previously busy times against this year’s key dates will provide a solid framework for staff rotas and stock, but it won’t set the festive flame alight.

If you want to pull punters into your venue, you’ll need to do more than put up some twinkly lights and serve a turkey dinner.

José Ignacio Bascuñan, export director for Europe, Morandé Wine Group advocates looking at past successes while considering new trends to “create intrigue and a point of difference”.

Go big or go home ​

With competition from 45 other bars in Leeds city centre, Shaun Wilson, licensee of the End, is well aware he has to create intrigue and a point of difference to capture festive trade.

So, in 2022, Wilson, who leases the site from Star Pubs, decided to turn his venue into a ski lodge. He erected a themed façade for the entrance while inside he built a false fireplace, added atmospheric lighting and some other festive touches.

To ensure everyone knew about the End’s winter wonderland, Wilson invested in social media advertising, running photo and video teaser ads after the August bank holiday so he’d be ready to capture bookings in September and October.

When decorations went up at the end of November, he hired entertainers on stilts and sold food and drink and photo packages to whip up further interest.

Wilson invested £10k in building the façade and £5k in social media advertising, but he had a long-term view with plans to re-use the theme for three years. It paid off: he tripled trade in 2022 and in 2023, bookings – including whole venue hire – were through the roof. The impressive façade also resulted in a free two-page spread in the Yorkshire Post​ in 2022.

“You need to maximise key dates like Christmas and go all out,” is Wilson’s advice. “It’s nerve wracking, but it always works for me.” 

‘Going all out’ might not be feasible for all, but there are some easy ways your pub can stand out at Christmas time without too large an investment. The Millbrook Inn is planning to run a wreath-making session, led by a head gardener and florist who makes one for the pub’s door each year.

“If it fits your style of pub, get staff to dress up,” adds Olver of Star Pubs. “Use selfie spots, eye-catching decorations, Instagrammable dishes and drinks to encourage customers to promote your pub on social media.”

Article continues below Stocking Fillers.​​

Stocking fillers: Five things pubs should get in for 2024

Goose​. The big bird is back for 2024 says Rebecca Alderton at Gressingham Foods. After being unavailable for two years due to measures to prevent the spread of avian flu, supplies of this traditional Christmas delicacy are back to normal. “Roast goose has a rich, moist flavour and goes just as well as turkey with goose fat roast potatoes and all the traditional trimmings, as well as pairing superbly with a robust, fruity red wine or a strong, hoppy English ale,” says Alderton.

Rum in everything. ​Along with vodka, rum sales have continued to rise this year so make it flex its muscles over the festive season by adding it to cocktails, mulled wine or rum-based hot drinks like eggnog or buttered rum. Ryan McFarland of Kirker Greer Spirits suggests Kadoo Spiced for warm kick or Kadoo Coconut in a Pina Colada to bring some sunshine to the winter months.

Hot chocolate with oomph. ​Flavoured hot chocolates were identified as a top trend in 2023 according to Scott Dixon of The Flava People and he predicts that they’ll be here to stay in 2024. “From Gingerbread spices to whiskey-infused, people were searching for a little added oomph to their hot drinks,” he says. “With Christmas 2023 consumer trends also showing a record low demand for alcohol sales across the UK, non-boozy options should be a consideration for publicans looking to create additional moments of indulgence. For example, hot chocolates loaded with creams, syrups and festive spices.”

Experiences. ​Consumers’ expectations are high and today they expect more than a glass of mulled wine and tinsel when they visit their local at Christmas. Hands-on events like wreath-making workshops are a great way to entice them through your doors and give them a reason to stay longer. “It’s important to give customers reasons to visit such as the Christmas quiz, disco, market, carols, darts and pools tournaments, Christmas jumper day and breakfast with Santa,” adds Cathy Olver of Star Pubs.

Low & no alcohol. ​Don’t forget to expand the range for non-drinkers, the designated drivers and those pacing themselves over the festive season. The options are (almost) limitless with popular beer brands Doom Bar, Cobra, Staropramen, Birra Moretti and cider brands Old Mout and Rekorderlig among those now available alcohol-free. Stocking up for the festive season is a savvy move, says Heineken’s Rhys Davies. “This will also help re-engage with guests after Christmas and encourage them to still visit their local during the typically quieter January-February period, as they know there are great-quality zero-alcohol options available to them.”

Seasonal sips​

Tom Holmes, head of marketing at Vocation Brewery reminds us that Christmas is also a time when customers are “not only willing to spend more but are inclined to” so bear this in mind when deciding on what to stock behind the bar - and promote - this Christmas.

It may be as simple as adding a few more sparkling wines to your list (an easy celebratory drink option), festive spirits and liqueurs like spiced rum or Bailey’s, or stocking some seasonal ales such as Black Sheep Brewery’s Blitzen or Snowflake.

While creative and fancy drinks can wow customers, long queues for beverages can also frustrate.

“Remember that customers can’t buy what you don’t stock,” says van der Neut of Lanchester Wines. “By no means are we talking about tying up cash buying cases and cases of premium wine, but just a small stockholding and a place on the list will be enough to maximise these opportunities when they arise.  Again, use data from your own sales to accurately predict what styles or regions might work best.”

Adding cocktails, which provide a higher spend-per-serve than other drink categories such as beer or wine could increase the bottom line too, adds Ben Anderson, marketing director at Funkin Cocktails.

Chris Jones, managing director of drinks distributor Paragon Brands, agrees cocktails can make for a merry Christmas but recommends Christmas cocktail staples that are simple to make – such as the Ghost of Christmas future with Anne Bonny spiced rum, Carpano Antica and Angostura bitters – take precedence on the menu, especially if you’re in a high-volume venue.

“Don’t forget that while creative and fancy drinks can wow customers, long queues for beverages can also frustrate,” he says. “Consider the number and capacity of staff when planning your menu to prevent the team from burnout, especially around ‘Mad Friday’.”

Take stock ​

Whatever you’re contemplating, make your decision and check in with suppliers and brand owners by October is the advice from Ryan McFarland of Kirker Greer, who recommends getting Christmas stock on site early if you can afford the outlay.  

“It’s the busiest time of the year for many outlets and although both brand owners and wholesalers try their best, there’s always a risk of ‘out of stocks’ closer to Christmas.”

Jones agrees, suggesting venues that might be concerned about shifting additional stock have an eye on incorporating them into other seasons.

“Unused stock can often be rolled over into the spring months with a slight twist and variation on cocktails, or spirits simply offered with a mixer.” 

The same can be said for low & no alcohol. Olver says sales of low & no beer and cider were strong at Star Pubs last Christmas because it had a good range of options. As Heineken UK’s Rhys-Davies points out, having a wide range of non-alcoholic options at Christmas will encourage customers to return to your venue if they’re abstaining in January.

Securing stocks of festive food might not be as straightforward, unless you have an agreement in place with suppliers already, like Owens at the Millbrook Inn has with her local farmer to supply the pub’s meat.

As Dobson at Lynx Purchasing says, it’s too early to forecast pricing trends for key Christmas staples like turkey and smoked salmon, so she advocates some flexibility on menu planning.

“Turkey always sees an uplift in prices as seasonal demand increases, and with avian flu still an issue globally, there is always the potential for disruption to supply,” she explains. “Smoked salmon often features on Christmas menus but there have been problems for some time with price fluctuations and quality concerns with farmed salmon.”

Pubs looking to fix prices on menus may be better sourcing alternatives like smoked trout or mackerel instead of smoked salmon is Dobson’s suggestion. Alternative meats to turkey could also be considered. Goose, for example, off the menu for the past two years, is now back and available for this Christmas.

Those considering getting ahead by stocking up on frozen vegetables might also be wise to clear space in freezers now as flooding problems faced by farmers earlier in the year have found their way into the supply chain, meaning price rises could come at the end of the year.

For those nervous about festive menus, the advice from Scott Dixon, managing director, The Flava People, is to keep it simple by “adding a layer of indulgence” to dishes.
“It can be as simple as incorporating an extra ingredient into an existing recipe, especially when it comes to desserts,” he says.

“Think mulled wine syrup drizzled over cheesecake, brandy cream instead of plain vanilla, or a cinnamon-infused crumble topping. Simple swaps that create perceived elevation and indulgence for minimum effort.”

Whatever you have on your menu, flexibility and good communication between operator and suppliers are essential, says Dobson.

“Be aware that the most popular products on the Christmas menu are the same products every pub is ordering. Keeping suppliers in the picture and letting them know in good time about changing order levels is a better strategy than placing last-minute orders for stock that may not be available.” 

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