Robert Sayles: Why doesn't anybody want to drink beer anymore?

So the downward spiral continues. The most recent Quarterly Beer Barometer published by the BBPA (see table, right) merely confirms what we have known for some considerable time; on trade volumes are declining at unprecedented levels. Latest figures show overall sales down 6.3% on the same period in 2009.

Let's be clear about this; 6.3% is a calamitous drop by any standard, particularly when you factor in the scale of previous falls; achieved it must be said in a quarter which saw the World Cup. Even a major football tournament it seems can't halt the inexorable slide downwards.

Sales were up on the first quarter; then again January, February and March are hardly the most lucrative of trading months, are they?

Brigid Simmonds wasted little time in putting a positive spin on this depressing data. "It (World Cup) has certainly been a benefit to Britain's beer sector" she stated encouragingly, "we can now hope that the market is starting to turn a corner."

Turn a corner? Yeah, right!

Brigid used similar language in 2009 when end of year declines showed a slowdown from those experienced in 2007 and 2008, (two years of heavy falls it should be said). She interpreted those figures as evidence that the sector was "starting to claw its way out of a recessionary slump".

It seems that the BBPA will grasp any straw, utilise use any piece of innocuous data to generate false optimism. Enterprise Inns stand similarly accused; no sooner was the last ball of the World Cup kicked than they came out with a statement saying trading was "stabilising".

Behind the scenes however it is a different story; in pubco boardrooms up and down the country PowerPoint presentations convey the same stark message; on trade volumes are falling at unprecedented levels.

In 2008, the then BBPA Chief Executive, Rob Hayward stated that "Beer sales in pubs are now at their lowest level since the Great Depression of the 1930s - down seven million pints a day from the height of the market in 1979."

We've dropped a long way since then and there is little doubt that further falls are inevitable; we're in a downward spiral make no mistake, one we appear powerless to halt. It has led many to conclude that the beer industry is in a state of terminable decline; looking at the figures it is difficult to refute such assertions.

Some would have us believe that the problems are a recent phenomenon, brought on by the recession and that once we begin to recover economically everything will be just fine. I have to say this is not a view I share.

The figures clearly show that the current decline is part of a long term trend, one that recent events have merely exacerbated; all this despite a rising population and extended opening hours.

So why do less and less people feel inclined to drink beer in our pubs? It's a question nobody seems to be able to satisfactorily answer; one thing's for sure somebody needs to and fast, we simply can't afford to allow falls of this magnitude to continue.

Many have suggested that smoking legislation is the primary cause; whilst the rate of decline has undoubtedly accelerated since 2007 it does not explain why beer sales were falling long before the ban and continue to do so, more than three years on.

Pubcos blame it on government taxation; I would have to disagree. The data clearly shows that the problem was around long before taxation reared it's ugly head.

Is it purely an issue of price? It is undoubtedly part of the problem, a fact that some have clearly recognised. Last month Wetherspoons opened twelve new outlets; whilst the purists might scoff, they do offer a decent product at a price people can afford to pay, an increasingly attractive proposition in recessionary times.

The tied sector is, it must be said, looking increasingly uncompetitive in comparison. It is an unpalatable fact but many of us are now in the business of selling a product that less and less want to buy, at a price that less and less can afford to pay. Hardly a recipe for long term success, is it?

In contrast the off trade has, with the exception of the last two years, witnessed phenomenal growth, off trade sales have increased rapidly, filling the void left by the on trade.

It is only a matter of time before off trade sales account for a greater percentage of overall volume than the on trade, (many analysts suggest the crossover will take place next year). This explains why the beer industry is opposed to minimum pricing; it is the likes of Tesco that are now generating an increasing share of their profits. In the eyes of many they are the future of the industry not us.

There does finally appear to be some acknowledgement of the crisis we face, recent initiatives have attempted to promote the "health" benefits of beer whilst the latest calorie led initiative by CAMRA is clearly an attempt to get women drinking beer.

Is that the best we as an industry can come up with? Convert a handful of women to real ale?

For the first time I have to say I am genuinely fearful of what lies ahead, we are in freefall with little sign of respite. An imminent rise in VAT, increasing pressure on disposable income, high unemployment and inevitable increases in beer prices ensure that difficult times lie ahead.

Last night I watched 'Das Boot', a classic film about the life of a crew on board a German U-boat during the Second World War. At one point the submarine came under sustained attack, took several hits and started to go down whilst the crew frantically struggled to restart the engines.

As the vessel descended into the murky depths, the needle of the gauge dropped into the red zone and the sub began to groan and creak. As it continued to descend to depths it was not designed to withstand, pressure on the hull mounted, rivets began to pop and water seeped into the vessel, implosion seemed imminent.

Watching this, thoughts turned to my own little 'submarine', I don't know about you but my depth gauge is well into the red zone at the moment and a few rivets have begun to pop.

Will the bulkheads hold? The truth is I don't know.

The only thing I am sure about is that we're heading down into deeper water.

If I were you, I'd keep an eye on that depth gauge!