Pete Robinson: Opinion polls? Just a matter of opinion

The same poll claims 36% of non-smokers 'intend to visit pubs more frequently'.

Once again we have to ask where are they? As I've said before, "likely" and "intending" does not mean actually going out to pubs. Not when you don't use pubs anyway. Does anyone​ really believe these sexed-up opinion polls anymore?

Just a couple of months ago MORI were warning the trade to gear itself up because "Publicans should experience a significant increase in business". It's all about hyping the fabled 'new opportunity' which has so far failed to materialise.

Stark reality has so far proved entirely different. Very few publicans haven't seen a downturn in wet-sales while food pubs are also feeling the pinch, if not just from the growing amount of competition. Hardly surprising with so many establishments currently targeting the same market.

Back in my student days statistics was one of the subjects on my timetable. God it was even more boring than accountancy. But I did learn how opinion poll statistics are easily manipulated to say anything you want them to, and with little effort can be compiled accordingly. A simple matter of how you word your questions, who you ask and where you ask it. In fact it's hard work to gather statistics that aren't biased.

For example, in 2003 MORI found only 40% supported a restaurant smoking ban while 37% of diners actually preferred to eat in the smoking area. Yet by 2006 MORI were suggesting 89% supported the impending ban, including 64% of smokers.

I find such a huge swing in public opinion impossible to rationalise, even allowing for the vast sums of taxpayer's cash that went into the Govt's propaganda campaign. So it seems that opinions differ, even from the opinion polls. I wouldn't advise anyone to extend their dining areas based on MORI's predicted rush of hungry 'new' customers.

As they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.