Revised GDP figures show economy is in a ‘fragile place’

Fragile place: Revised GDP figures show now growth in Q3 2024
Fragile place: Revised GDP figures show now growth in Q3 2024 (Getty Images/MarioGuti)

The revised GDP figures from ONS show the “fragile” state of the economy as business confidence continued to “plummet”, trade body UKHospitality (UKH) has said.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released on Monday 23 December, revealed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed no growth in Q3 2024 (July to Sept), revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.9%.

It followed news inflation jumped 0.3 percentage points last month, rising by 2.6% in the 12 months to November 2024, up from 2.3% in the 12 months to October, according to ONS.

Fragile place

Moreover, last week the Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75%, leaving many operators to continue struggling with post-Covid debt.

In addition, the latest figures from ONS also showed the price of a pint in pubs had increased by 2.5% in the year November.

On top of this, operators are also preparing for a £3.4bn hike in costs next year following the Budget, including on National Insurance Contributions and wages.

UKH chief executive Kate Nicholls said: “These revised growth figures confirm what we already suspected – that the economy is in a fragile place and in dire need of growth.

Rethink its approach

“But with business confidence already plummeting and a third of hospitality businesses operating at or below break even, the planned changes to employer National Insurance Contributions will make generating economic growth even more difficult.

“Hospitality is hit disproportionately hard by the changes, particularly the lowering of the threshold, and the £3.4bn in costs hitting the sector in April will impact jobs, investment and business viability.

“That’s why we urgently need the Government to rethink its approach. Delaying these changes to allow for proper consultation and engagement with businesses is much needed to protect hard-working venues and team members.”