Its latest research has found elements of the on-trade finds itself in a more precarious position than ever up to the end of November 2024.
Increases in business rates, national insurance, the national minimum wage and alcohol duty (in some sectors) are compounding the pressure on an already weathered marketplace.
A snapshot of key data over the four weeks to the end of November 2024 tells the story in more detail: City centre sales volumes were down 16.1% and previously reduced opening hours remain flat year-on-year as operators retain the need to close earlier and be more selective with their opening times and/or staffing costs.
In the four weeks to the end of September 2024 (prior to the Budget), city centre sales volumes were down only 3.0%, which shows a stark shift in a short span of time.
In the 12 weeks to the end of September 2024, there was an element of green shoots for the trade as outlet numbers at long last started to show mild signs of stabilisation, albeit small, with numbers up 0.3%.
Outlet numbers fall
The recent four-week figures to the end of November 2024 now show the outlet trend fall from 0.3% to minus 1.1%. Are we seeing a wave of post-budget pressures on outlets, allied to the existing cost of living issues, causing precarious outlets to permanently or temporarily close?
While consumer dwell time is up marginally by 0.8% towards the end of November 2024, it didn’t quite match up to the encouraging year-to-date rise of 2.6%.
Outlet occupancy (busyness) rates remained slightly up by 1.4% across the four weeks of November 2024 but with there being a spike in losses of outlets in the on-trade, we can see why overall volumes declined by 1.8% in the most recent four weeks.
Allied to all of this, and by the end of November 2024, pubs, bars and clubs saw no year-on-year growth in consumer spending – where previously this trend was up 0.6% to the end of September 2024.
To compound this decline, it was also a particularly difficult month for restaurants, which declined in consumer spending by 0.6% year-on-year, having been 1.4% in growth at the end of September 2024. This suggests a hit to consumer confidence and hospitality spending as a result of the recalibration period after the Budget.
Most beer volumes drop
Oxford Partnership said it has seen the ongoing decline in draught beer volumes maintain its course, now down 2.0% in the year to date (YTD).
World lager (up 7.7%) and stout sales (up 16.0%) remain the only star performers at the moment while core lager (down 6.8%), world 4% lager (down 3.9%), premium lager (down 3.2%), craft (down 10.0%) and ale (down 5.3%) all saw a tough decline in sales on the YTD, and particularly within the latest four weeks.
Oxford Partnership CEO Alison Jordan said: “As we approach the festive season, it’s a time to reflect on resilience and opportunity amid challenge.
“While the past months have tested the Hospitality industry with rising costs and shifting dynamics, they have also highlighted the ingenuity and determination of operators to adapt.
“Let’s raise a glass to brighter days in 2025 and the strength of our hospitality community – this Christmas, and beyond.”
