OPINION: What’s happening with Guinness – the success story of the year?

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Stout examination: Pete Brown

At first, there were rumours.

Diageo was running out of Guinness? Really? Nah, it must be a headline-grabbing marketing stunt. A conspiracy to get people to drink the plentiful supplies in the off-trade. They can’t run out of Guinness…

And then, over the weekend – just as the Christmas rush was getting into gear – pubs that normally get through 20 kegs of Guinness a week were told they can only have two or three. Whether it was the intention or not, pubs running out of Guinness hit the national news headlines.

Diageo insists it’s a fulfilment issue rather than production. And it’s interesting to note that Great Britain is the only territory affected – supply in Ireland is continuing as normal. However we got here, what does this mean for 2024’s runaway beer success story?

A win for other nitro stouts

The short-term impact is undoubtedly a win for other producers of nitro stouts. Guinness’s old rival Murphy’s and Anspach & Hobday, makers of London Black, have reportedly already introduced waiting lists for their stouts. Publicans and drinkers have the chance to try something different and learn that there’s a lot more to stout then Guinness. Those in the trade who have been frustrated by regular increases to the price of Guinness, who feel that however much it hurts, they have no choice but to stick the brand, will no doubt enjoy giving bar space to cheaper and arguably better beers. If they had their choice, I doubt they’d go back.

But I don’t believe they will be given that choice.

The pubs worst hit by shortages are those who normally sell a lot of Guinness. If you usually get through a keg or two a week, you’re not going to see much difference. But if you’re normally selling 20 or 30 kegs, it’s likely that you’re an Irish-style pub and Guinness is the reason people go there.

And more people are going to these pubs more often.

Iconic brand

Guinness is so much more than a pint of nitro stout. It’s an iconic brand. It has its own pouring ritual. And now, it has its own drinking game. Splitting the G – where you take a big enough initial gulp from your pint that the level of the liquid neatly bisects the G in the Guinness logo – is a viral sensation on Instagram. I was in Amsterdam last week on a press trip with a well-known Dutch lager brand, and the influencers on the trip were looking for Irish bars where they could split the G when they really should have been focusing on the perfect pilsner pour.

These influencers have introduced Guinness to a new, younger audience who like to be seen drinking Guinness – not just nitro stout. This is also an audience that enjoys scarcity, skipping venues that don’t have a big enough queue outside. For them, seeking out pubs that still have Guinness pouring will only add to the fun.

When this “fulfilment issue” is sorted – and I don’t believe it will take long if that’s what it truly is – publicans may reluctantly have to concede that you can’t split the G on anything else. Let’s see where we are on 17 March.