New research shows a 0.5% increase in the number of licensed premises between March and June 2024, which is the equivalent of 462 net new openings or five per day, according to the Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners.
It is the first such increase since mid-2022 and only the third since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. Second-quarter growth was even across the different sectors of hospitality and extended to the independent segment, where numbers increased by 0.5% to end several years of sustained closures caused by severe cost and Covid-related pressures.
The upward trend is in line with other positive indicators from 2024, including solid growth in sales plus an easing of inflation and household bills.
Longer-term outlook weaker
However, while quarter-on-quarter movements are positive, longer-term comparisons are weaker, with outlet numbers down by 1.0% or 969 from June 2023.
Britain’s total sites are still 13.8% below the pre-Covid figure of March 2020.
Karl Chessell, CGA by NIQ’s director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA, said: “These numbers are a welcome sign of the confidence of business leaders and investors in hospitality.
“While it’s too early to be sure that hospitality’s downward trend in outlets has bottomed out, alongside solid sales growth over the first half of 2024 these figures indicate the brightest outlook for the sector for some time.
“Cost pressures mean thousands of businesses remain fragile and millions of consumers’ discretionary spending continues to be tight, and hospitality may never fully return to its pre-Covid size in outlet terms—but it’s clear that it is now back on a much surer path.”
Themed bar segment
AlixPartners managing director Graeme Smith added: “It’s especially encouraging to see such significant growth in the themed bar segment – a segment that includes both competitive socialising venues and bars with a particular theme – with a growth rate of 28.9% over the past 12 months.
“This has been driven by the continued popularity of experiential leisure and the demand from consumers to elevate their experiences when socialising out of home.
“The return to outlet growth reflects the stabilisation of the market and paints a more positive picture for businesses and investors alike, with this growth acting as a marker for the recovery of the industry. We expect to see this growth develop as confidence continues to rise in the second half of the year.”
While the CGA figures cover the wider hospitality market, last week, insight expert Lumina Intelligence stated pub closures this year are forecast to be steeper than before Covid via its UK Pub & Bar Market Report.
More details on how to purchase that report can be found by clicking here.
