The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) earlier this week estimated the production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape may be down by 4m tonnes compared to 2023, a reduction of 17.5%, due to increased wet weather.
Based on analysis of Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) crop area forecasts and Defra yield data, the ECIU said warmer wetter winters were expected to increase in frequency as the climate heats up.
While the National Farmers Union (NFU) warned this was a threat to the UK’s food security, the Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) cautioned it could also have a “knock-on effect” for breweries and pubs.
Knock-on effect
CAMRA National Chairman Nik Antona said: “The potential increase in the price of wheat in the UK is another worrying sign for pubs and breweries up and down the country.
“If the price of wheat were to rise due to the UK’s wet weather conditions, then it could certainly have a negative knock-on effect for breweries and pubs, with the price of a pint potentially rising further.”
The impact of the wet winter was of particular concern for the UK’s wheat harvest, the ECIU said, estimating wheat production could be down by up to 26.5% compared to 2023.
It added this could push the price of certain wheat products such as bread, beer and biscuits.
Significant threat
This comes as the price of a pint of draught lager in a pub was calculated to have increased by 0.5% during the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Antona continued: “Publicans and brewers do not want to have to raise their prices but are often left helpless, with the only other option being closing their doors for good.
“Due to the unfortunate amalgamation of present issues – including the mounting costs of goods and employing staff, escalating energy bills, unfair business rates and customers reeling from the cost-of-living crisis – pubs and breweries are under significant threat of closure.
“To prohibit further price rises and closures of community hubs, and breweries, the Government must ensure pub and brewing industries are taxed fairly to combat the grossly unjust business rates, otherwise more and more pubs and breweries will be forced to close.”
