Food inflation fell to 15% in November
However, the speed of that fall is much slower than the equivalent rise to the 22.9% peak that happened in December last year.
On the way up it took just four months to rise from 15% to the peak.
On the way down it took more than twice the time period at 11 months.
Meanwhile, levels of supermarket price inflation (measured by CPI) which fell sharply between May and September begun to firm again in the run-up to the Christmas period.
Shaun Allen, Prestige Purchasing chief executive, said: “There’s little doubt that wholesalers have been battling rising costs, just like hospitality operators and the remainder of the supply chain."
Staying vigilant
He added: “But with the market coming off peak-levels of inflation operators need to be especially vigilant as suppliers seek to enhance margins to rebuild their balance sheets.”
In November, FPI saw just two categories (oils and fats at 1.4%, and dairy at 8.8%) performing below 10% year-on-year.
This was in stark contrast to vegetables where inflation remained extremely high at 27.3%.
The UN FAO Food Commodity Index (the overall measure of international food commodity prices) averaged 120.4 points in November 2023, unchanged from its October level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and sugar counterbalanced decreases in those of cereals and meat.
Slow journey
The index stood 14.4 points (10.7%) below its corresponding level one year ago.
Brent Crude eased one dollar a barrel in the month, with a sharp fall in early December.
Sterling appreciated 4% during the month against the dollar, whilst annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) remained over 7% in November.
James Ashurst, client director at CGA by NIQ, said it was “frustrating” to see a much slower journey back towards normal levels after such rapid rises in inflation in recent times. Ashurst said high rises in the cost of vegetables were particularly concerning.
“The general UK rate of inflation may be coming down, but businesses across the food supply chain will be feeling the heat on prices for some time to come,” he added.
