Food inflation exceeds 20%

According to the CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index, this marks the first time in its history inflation is more than 20%. 

All categories recorded double-digit inflation with oils and fats remained at unprecedented highs, reporting 47% year on year.

However, the index stated there is some evidence to suggest the category is calming a little with month-on-month rises moderating from earlier highs.

Oil prices

Furthermore, vegetables increased by almost 4% month on month and now sits at year-on-year inflation of 23%.

But, there are some signs major influences on food prices are beginning to stabilise. The cost of oil dropped in November from $93 to $82 per barrel while sterling was stable against the Euro and dollar.

In addition, food commodity markets have eased in recent weeks with the UN’s FAO Food Price Index remaining largely unchanged compared from October while month-on-month decreases in the price indices for cereals, dairy and meat, almost offsetting rises in vegetable oils and sugars.

Average monthly increase

Prestige Purchasing CEO Shaun Allen said: “We expect inflation to begin to level off in December, with a gradual decline commencing in the new year as the impacts of the less challenging upstream influences and year-on-year effects begin to feed through into the index.

“Nevertheless, the average monthly increase in prices during 2022 has been 1.7% so inflation has a long way to fall before prices (rather than inflation) can start to come down.”

CGA by NielsenIQ client director James Ashurst said the latest figures capped an “exceptionally challenging year” for the hospitality sector and food supply.

He added: “Alongside labour shortages and the cost-of-living crisis, high inflation has placed intense pressure on operators’ margin and made real-terms growth extremely difficult.

“Businesses across the industry will be holding their breath for respite in 2023.”