For the busy pub operator, it is sometimes hard to step off the treadmill of day-to-day operations to give considerations to some of these big-picture, macro issues, but it’s worth doing occasionally, in order to fine tune your offer and keep yourself competitive.
If we focus on the T of SWOT and the S of PEST, we can certainly see a threat to the pub sector from a growing social trend — that of teetotalism (supposedly named after a member of the 19th century temperance movement with a stammer who insisted on t-t-t-total abstinence).
Report
A report last week from the Office for National Statistics revealed more than a quarter of young adults (aged 16 to 24) do not drink alcohol at all — up 40% in the past 10 years.
And even among those adults that do drink alcohol, occasions and volumes are falling sharply — only one in 50 men under 25 now drinks on an almost daily basis — compared with one in 10 a decade ago; and ‘binge drinking’ across the adult population is down by 17% (and by one third among young adults).
This paints a very different picture from the one the anti-alcohol lobby has been busy peddling, and suggests that moderation and sobriety are increasingly the watchwords for health-conscious consumers.
What’s the context of this pattern of behaviour? Well, alcohol unit labels are everywhere; Government-sponsored advice tells us how many we can safely consume and exaggerates alcohol harm with dubious hospital admissions statistics; Scotland has just lowered its drink-drive limit by almost 40%; and some pubs are being required to introduce breathalysers on the door. Is it any wonder some people don’t fancy a drink?
Changes
And while Tory peer Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts was recently vilified for linking pub closures to a rise in the Muslim population, we must all be realistic about the impact of major demographic changes on levels of demand for the services pubs provide.
So, if alcohol is going the way of tobacco, what can publicans do to future-proof their business, beyond selling more food and coffee, from a trend that — on the face of it — spells disaster for the on-trade? It’s a question we’ll be exploring at our Future Pub conference at London’s May Fair Hotel next week (24 February).
One of the speakers is Catherine Salway, who runs Redemption — a dry bar with the slogan: "Spoil yourself without spoiling yourself."
Activities
We’ll also be hearing from businesses that provide organised entertainment in their venues — where the focus is less about alcohol than the activities they lay on for customers.
And there’ll be presentations from academics and social commentators on how pubs can re-engage with that elusive Generation Y — the 16 to 24-year-olds who don’t have the same relationship with pubs we did as youngsters.
Book your place at www.futurepub.co.uk — alcohol will be provided!