It involves “the use of a lie so ‘colossal’ that no one would believe that someone could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously”, and “above all, the deliberate misuse of statistics to inflate the problem”.
So — in the light of this warning — what do we make of the report from the Greater Manchester Combined Authority that estimates the annual cost of excessive drinking within its jurisdiction at a staggering £1.2bn?
It’s a huge number arrived at by combining various proportions of 22 different estimated costs, including hospital admissions, general criminal offences, unemployment and social services. Oh, and — for good measure — a cost is calculated for premature mortality, based on lost earnings up to the age of 65.
Vague
I’m no professional statistician, but this seems to be the results of a brainstorm of all the possible effects of alcohol misuse with a vague multiplier applied to total expenditure estimates from a range of different sources.
The causal direction of many of the problems identified is far from proven. For example, who can say if unemployment is caused by alcohol misuse, or if alcohol misuse is one symptom of unemployment? The same goes for depression and other debilitating illnesses. As for crime — are some criminals fuelled by alcohol, or would they commit their crimes, drunk or not?
This whole exercise is a massive ‘finger-in-the-air’ job. And frankly, it’s a big middle finger aimed squarely at the pub and bar sector.
Negative
No consideration is given to the positive societal and health benefits of moderate alcohol consumption, or the financial benefits of the enormous tax revenues generated from the sale of alcoholic drinks.
And little effort is made to differentiate between harmful, unsupervised binge drinking, and the safe consumption of alcohol in licensed on-trade premises.
These sorts of unnecessarily negative Big Lie ‘studies’ need challenging before they are allowed to embed themselves into the consciousness of politicians and other influential thought leaders. Otherwise they will lead to a pervading view that alcohol is universally bad; and the consequences of that consideration — taken to its logical conclusion — are apocalyptic for our industry.
We’re already seeing examples of local authorities emboldened by the pronouncements of the anti-alcohol lobby and losing their sense of proportion and duties of public accountability.
Witness Southampton Council’s arrogant dismissal of its need to outline or justify its plans to allocate the proceeds of a Late Night Levy.
Sleepwalking
There is a creeping anti-alcohol agenda being perpetrated by so-called health lobbyists. We must not allow them to spread their Big Lies unchallenged and find ourselves sleepwalking into their desired anti-pub legislation.
Our own message is clear — pubs can and do have a hugely positive impact on their communities.
Let’s remain truthful and positive, and win this argument once and for all.