Beer volumes predicted to fall by 15% over next five years

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) published updated data showing the total predicted amount of receipts from duty on beer, wines and spirits.

Over the period 2012/13 to 2018/19, the OBR forecast shows increases in total duty receipts as:

• Beer/cider +0%
• Wines +54%
• Spirits +31%

Over the same period, the OBR expects wine volumes to increase 19%, spirits volumes to increase by 1% but beer volumes to fall back a further 15%.

The figures were uncovered by the Wilson Drinks Report​. Managing director Tim Wilson said: "We expect that the Chancellor will continue to implement the duty escalator on wines and spirits over the remainder of this parliament, and beyond.

Steady decline​

“The level of increase in the predicted total duty receipts is proof of this. Wine duty would need to increase by 4.4% each year on average to achieve the estimated level of duty receipts by 2018/19.

“Despite volumes of still wine being in steady decline at the moment, wine duty receipts are expected to increase by 54% between 2012/13 and 2018/19. This is because HM Treasury believes that economic growth will be accompanied by large increases in the sales of wine."

The Chancellor’s decision to freeze fuel duty again in the Autumn Statement shows that any spare cash will be used to help car drivers, not drinkers, before the next election, Wilson added.