It said seasonal menus making the most of British produce can help pubs maintain margins during the festive season, rather than relying on important goods.
"The temptation to ‘push the boat out’ is very strong at this time of year as restaurants, pubs and chefs work to make their seasonal menus special," said Lynx Purchasing managing director John Pinder.
"However, this often means menus which feature imported vegetables rather than the best British root vegetables or sprouts, which are in good supply and will offer excellent value this year. Equally, festive desserts which use soft fruit such as strawberries instead of British apples or pears could be storing up problems for caterers.
"A great deal of soft fruit comes from the Middle East at this time of year, and with the political situation in the region still unstable, prices could easily fluctuate between now and December. Operators who have already taken Christmas booking at set prices could easily find their margin eroded by rising prices."
The autumn/winter edition of the Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast advises that food inflation will continue at around 4% into the first quarter of 2014, meaning caterers must manage their menu prices.
Pinder said: "When planning seasonal menus, it makes sense to focus on produce where prices are forecast to remain stable."
While beef remains in short supply, British lamb is expected to remain stable until the new year. Supplies of salmon, potatoes and other vegetables including broccoli, carrots, sprouts and cabbage will also be more readily available.