Eating out market to grow to £90bn, managed pubs to be 'main winners'

The report says that this growth will be assisted by an increase in outlets over the next five years, with compound annual growth rates of 0.7%, reaching in excess of 337,000 outlets by 2018.

Branded and managed pubs are forecast to be the main winners over the next five years, taking a further 2.1 percentage points of share in turnover.

Coffee shops and sandwich bars will increase share of turnover by 1.6 percent points, driven by physical expansion, together with an increasing market share of outlets by 1.1 percentage points over the next five years.

Independent restaurants will be hardest hit by the growth of branded concepts, and risk losing significant share of the market, with Allegra forecasting a decrease of 3.4 percent points of turnover and 1 percent points in outlets over the next five years.

Robust trading​

The report, which surveys over 2,000 UK consumers on their eating out habits, and interviews over 150 chief executives and other senior executives, said that the 326,145 outlet-strong market is forecast to show 1.8% sales growth and 0.9% expansion growth this year, outperforming the UK high street retail sales growth forecast of only 0.3%.

Growth is led by robust trading performances by coffee shops, sandwich chains, and the branded restaurant sector (including branded fast food, branded pubs and casual dining restaurants).

The report found that 19 million UK adults are visiting eating out establishments at least once a week; up from 17 million since 2012. However, there is a slight decline in the frequency of visits on a monthly basis, with 1 in 8 meals eaten out last year, compared to 2013 where 1 in 8.5 meals are eaten out.

Volatile weather conditions at the start of 2013 have impacted visit frequency. Lunch is consumed on average 4.2 times per month out of home, declining by 6.6% on last year. Average monthly dinner out of home declined to 2.5 meals per month in 2013 compared with 2.7 in 2012.

The out-of-home breakfast category, was found to be an important growth area, increasing slightly in the first half of 2013 compared with 2012, to 1.8 meals per month per person, up from 1.7.

Consumer confidence​

Average spend on breakfast has increased to £4.77, from £4.66 in 2012. Lunch spend has increased to £7.39 in 2013, compared with £7.22 in 2012. However, average spend at dinner declined to £17.89 per person, from £18.11 in 2012.

The survey said that consumer confidence has stabilised in the past year, with fewer consumers feeling negative about their future income levels, 39% in 2013 compared with 45% in 2012.

However, it also found that consumers are defensive about spending, albeit less so than last year; 53% say they spend cautiously when eating out, compared with 62% in 2012.

The report also identifies that 56% of consumers tend to look for a meal deal in order to get good value when eating out, but that 1 in 3 consumers ensure they have enough money every month to eat out, reinforcing the fact that eating out is the new normal.