It comes as new Mintel research predicts that on-trade volumes will fall c4% this year to 2.8bn litres; it’s expected to reach 2.3bn litres by 2018. However, it also predicts marginal value growth of 0.3% to £24bn and the value of the sector is estimated to reach £27bn in five years.
A Mintel survey of 2,000 people who drink out of home at least once a month found that 39% are now drinking out less often, and 36% have cut back on their spending in the past year. However, 51% have not changed how often they drink out, and 50% have not altered how much they spend.
The research found that 6% of drinkers plan to drink more as a result of the recent cut in beer duty; 79% don’t plan to change their consumption as a result of the move. It also found that 55% of drinkers consider social drinking important to them.
Sea change
Mintel said: “While the price of beer has been frozen this year, over two thirds (67%) of monthly out of home drinkers already think that drinking out of home is now too expensive, providing the impetus to switch to cheaper in-home drinking.”
Chris Wisson, senior drinks analyst at Mintel, said: “The increased pub footfall in recent weeks has meant that the success of the beer escalator’s removal can only really be judged when temperatures return to more typical levels. Beer is generally the most important drink category for pubs and the Government’s decision to scrap the tax escalator has rightly been lauded.
“However, this alone is unlikely to cause a sea change in behaviour. The recent warm weather has highlighted how Brits’ love affair with the pub remains strong, but it also shows how consumers are demanding more from their visits. While the weather is evidently beyond publicans’ control, they may be able to entice people back to pubs and justify prices with things which they can control such as a focus on good service, cleanliness and a range of high quality food and drinks.”
Despite being a significant decline in beer sales in recent years, Mintel said it remains the biggest category in the on-trade, accounting for 52% of the total in 2012 (£11.1bn).
It is followed by wine at 20% (£4.5bn), spirits and liqueurs at 18% (£4bn), cider at 7% (£1.5bn), RTDs at 2% (£405m) and Champagne/sparkling wine at 1% (£154m).
Continued education
The survey also found that pub customers may be ignorant about the alcohol unit content of drinks.
When shown a variety of popular drinks and asked what their alcoholic unit contents were, just 17% of out of home drinkers correctly identified a 25ml shot of spirit and mixer as containing the fewest units.
Three out of 10 wrongly identified a pint of beer or cider (at 4.5% ABV and around 2.6 units) as having the fewest units, while 20% thought that a large glass of wine (at 12% and 3 units) contains the least units. Half of out of home drinkers (54%) think there should be more information about drinking in moderation, with only 14% thinking that binge drinking is in decline.
Wisson said: “There remains a big gap in drinkers’ knowledge when it comes to understanding alcoholic drinks and units. This can be particularly problematic if people are driving to and from the pub, with the old adage of staying within legal driving limits by ‘only having one drink’ not being strictly true.
“With many pints nudging above 5% ABV, just one pint could put someone over the legal driving limit without their knowledge. The fact that many consumers are keen to learn more about what is in their drinks underlines the need for continued education as misunderstanding appears to be rife.”