UK on-trade to lose more than 7,700 outlets over next five years

A CGA report predicts that café-wine bars, premium spirits and cask ale will be “tomorrow’s winners”. CGA said last year the on-trade in Britain was worth £39bn in food and drink retail sales, with £24bn from wet sales alone.

“On-trade volumes may be declining more quickly than off trade volumes, but the on-trade still represents 61% of the value of alcohol sales in GB and is growing value share.

“Yet operating in the market is not all smooth sailing. Whilst operational excellence is apparent the length and breadth of Britain, so too is its polar opposite – and in the context of declining consumer engagement it’s these less evolved venues that are informing the market and drinks sector performance trends of overall decline.

“Challenging trading over the next two years will disproportionately affect those outlets that have not adapted to capitalise on emergent consumer trends and consequently find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. There are certain pockets of strong growth forecasted however, which will help change the shape of the on-trade as we currently see it.”

Alex Eyre of CGA said: “Our latest future forecasting report gets to the heart of the issues characterising the licensed trade in 2013.

"On the retail side we’re seeing a multiplicity of successful retail models, from the slick operational excellence of the major national chains to entrepreneurial and creative dynamism of emerging local talent both continuing to drive onward growth.

“On the supply side, a proliferation of new premium brands and products feed and cultivate demand from consumers. It’s the consumer’s thirst for discovery and experience that will drive the on trade forward sustainably.”